Jacksonville vs Detroit +1 O/U 51.5
I think that it is safe to say that Jacksonville is a better team than Detroit as it is right now, but it isn’t by a huge margin. Detroit was very unhealthy for a good stretch of the season, and now Dan Campbell has his guys locked and loaded here on extra thanksgiving rest to take on the jaguars. Let’s face it, the stats aren’t really showing the true power of this Lions team who ripped off three wins in their last four games and a close loss at home vs Buffalo. Jacksonville right now is dead even in net yards per play while Detroit is -.6 That is not a huge discrepancy here. The Jaguars on the other hand should not have lost a few of their games the way that they did this year, but They did just beat Baltimore and now have Tennessee on deck next week. This looks like a typical old sandwich spot to me where the team could let down some. I think the Lions can get the win here at home being that the stats are close enough to make a case. This one will be a sweat so prepare for that.
Lions +1 – 2 stars
Miami vs San Francisco -4 O/U 46.5
Lots of people look at San Francisco and think of defense, but they do not think of where the weakness lies and that is in the secondary. What people do not know is that two of their three cornerbacks would be second string on many other teams and they are getting by purely on pass rush ranking 8th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in pressure rate. When the 49ers (who rank 2nd to last in strength of schedule) actually paly an offense with a pulse like the Chiefs and the Falcons, this team gave up 44 and 28 points respectively. Last week the Saints and Andy Dalton blew 2 red zone opportunities. On the other side of the ball, the fish have a coach in Mike McDaniel that worked under Kyle Shanahan for years. He will know how to beat the 49ers defense as good as anyone else can. The big issues with the Dolphins is that their defense is quite suspect themselves. Miami only ranks 18th in defensive EPA per play and they give up 4.5 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per play. The Dolphins lost some key defensive contributors like CB Byron Jones, DE Emannuel Ogbah as well as a few others this year. The Fish are 3rd in offensive EPA per play at 29 points per game to the 49ers who, now with a healthy offense and CMC rank 5th in offensive EPA since week 9. I have the 49ers -5.5 in this game but I like the over even more.
Over 46 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Seattle to -.5 with the Bengals to +8.5 – 2 stars
