Detroit vs Denver -10.5 O/U 42.5
Detroit was remarkable last week coming back against the Vikings and winning their first NFL game of the season. I am actually happy for Dan Campbell and this team deserves it. Now they get to face a Broncos team with a QB who looked terrible last week and is looking for some redemption. The Broncos even with some of their injury woes still rank 14th in offensive EPA and 10th in defense. I would call that a little above average. Detroit ranks 31st and 29th in EPA respectively. Another major issue for the Lions, besides their overall strength, is injuries. The Lions have a slew of starters out due to Covid or the flu. I can imagine more could be announced today. They might not even have their kicker ready for the game. Finally, let’s not forget that the Lions are in a massive let down spot after getting their first win vs the Vikings last week. I got to go with Denver here and I think that they cover this large spread.
Denver -10.5 – 2 stars
LA Rams vs Arizona -2.5 O/U 51.5
Have you guys ever heard the term, “Big game Matt Stafford?” Well Neither have I. This quarterback always seems to lose when facing the better teams and we already saw this happen at home vs the Cardinals earlier this year. The Cardinals rank number 2 in EPA per play on offense and number 2 on defense while the Rams rank 4th and 9th respectively. I will say that the Rams have a .3 net yard per play advantage, but we have to remember that QB Kyle Murray missed some games for the Cardinals this year. I know that we can’t give the Cardinals 3 points for home field advantage and maybe it’s only about 1.5 points, but that doesn’t mean that the largest key number in the NFL being 3 shouldn’t factor in. I have the better team here at home laying a number lower than the 3. Can’t get much better here.
Arizona -2.5 – 2.5 stars
