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Tampa Bay vs San Francisco +3.5 O/U 37
Are the Buccaneers a little banged up on the offensive line? Yes, Is Todd Bowles a bad football coach? Yes, but if you saw how Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came back on Monday vs the Saints, you might regain a little confidence with this handicap. Now I have Tampa Bay a little bit above average team with upside while the 49ers were the 4th best team in the league with Jimmy Garoppolo, but that changed when he went out for the season. Brock Purdy did a good Job last week, but not good enough to lay more than three points to Tom Brady. The Bucs figured out that their wide receivers are awesome, and when they call three step drop passes and quicker developing plays, the Buccaneers can be very successful. Nick Bosa is banged up for the 49ers and if he plays, he will be less than 100%. If you remember last week, we said that the way to beat the 49ers is attacking that secondary. Well it was working for the Dolphins before Tua decided to choke. Tampa Bay now with a healthier defensive front should go back to their run stuffing ways forcing Purdy to make some big throws. I know that Kyle Shanahan will try and hide his deficiencies, but it could end up blowing up in his face if Tampa can play some bully ball. Grab the points.
Tampa +3.5 – 2 stars
Vikings vs Lions -2.5 O/U 51.5
What do you do when you see the highest total of the week in the NFL? You bet the over of course! Since week 9, the Lions have been a fierce offense ranking 4th in EPA per play and 3rd in offensive success rate. The Vikings on offense have been coasting through the season at 5.4 yards per play and 24 points per game. Minnesota has been very fortunate winning a bunch of coin flip games, but they have the power to do so with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson leading the way on offense. This is also the TJ Hockenson revenge game where they traded him prematurely for picks, and I could see a big performance coming out of him. Both the Vikings and the Lions rank dead last in opponent yards per play giving up 6.3 for the queens and 6.4 for the kittens. I see a shoot out here in Detroit where the field conditions and weather is controlled. Take the over 52.5
Over 51.5- 2 stars
Teaser: Ravens to +8 with the Eagles to -.5 – 2 stars
