What an absolute crazy start for week 15 in the NFL. From all of the roster changes, games being rescheduled, and an EPIC TNF game… we are in-store for a wild ride!. Oh and not to mention we now have four straight days of NFL action…LFG! Now with this crazy week comes my “crazy” pick. It goes against the grain and is certainly not going to be popular.
NFL record through Week 14: 115-85 +30.98 Units
Den -3 (-110)
Fading the public in this match up. From the various podcast, radio shows, and talking to people, a ton and I mean a TON of people are loving the Bengals in this spot @ +3. The current Bet % via Action Network as I write this article is 62% Cin 38% Den. Seems like more action is coming in on DEN since I locked this bet in when it was 71/29 on Cin. As that percentage gets closer together, look for this line to grow. My guess by tomorrow we could see it at 3.5-4.
Games are won in the trenches. For me the Bengals offensive line is just going to be too banged up against a very capable Broncos defense. With both Riley Reiff and Isaiah Prince out, the right tackle position is exposed to 3rd stringer Fred Johnson. Burrow is going to be under pressure and already going to have trouble as it is with the Broncos elite secondary. Historically speaking the Bengals have not faired well traveling to Mile High. in their last 11 games on the road they are 1-10. Working in our favor we also love the trend of Teddy Bridgewater boasting a 75% ATS covering record at 33-11.
The combination of the inconsistency of the Bengals play: Wondering which team is going to show up week-to-week. The public being so confident to quickly speak on taking the Bengals, no questions asked. Bengals injuries, particularly exposing their offensive line and the key trends of away record vs Bridgewater’s ATS competency. It’s gross it feels bad the Bengals should be the pick… nope too easy to like them in this spot. Broncos -3.
