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Patriots vs Broncos +7.5 O/U 35.5
This should be a cold game with a chance of snow. My question is, what have the Broncos done to deserver to lay past a touchdown to any team in this league? A lot of what this Russell Wilson led team has done was with smoke and mirrors. Denver has a league high +13 fumble recoveries so far this season and a total of 24 takeaways. The Patriots are on the ass end of that with a 3rd worst 22nd in give-aways. From an offensive perspective the Patriots haven’t had a pass game until last week, but they can at least run the ball ranking 20th in rush EPA to Denver’s 15th. On defense, the Patriots grade better than the Broncos believe it or not at 15th in total defensive EPA to the Broncos ranking 26th. I think that the Patriots have success running the ball against one of the worst rushing defenses in football. If Bailey Zappe can play a clean game today, the Patriots have a chance in winning this. Take the points.
New England +7.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Texans to +9 with the Titans to +9 – 3 stars. Both teams are home dogs playing two potential playoff frauds in the Browns and the Seahawks. The Browns are god awful on the road while the Seahawks haven’t blown anyone out not named the Giants on the Road.
