Bills vs Bears +8 O/U 40
What gives with these Bears? They get massively classed and out-gained, and somehow cover last week vs a one loss Eagles team. The Bills on the other hand need themselves a slump buster. A team to pick on, and no better candidate right now than the Chicago Bears. People keep forgetting how this Bills team is very capable of getting margin like they did against The LA Rams, Green Bay and New England. Now the team in football plays the second worst team in the NFL and is less than a double digit favorite. Buffalo has a 1.1 net yards per play advantage over the Bears and that is counting when the Bears were actually healthy. As of last week, Chicago finally lost their best player on defense in Jack Sanborn. This won’t bode well vs the Bills. The Bears are a top four team in sacks allowed while the Bills are top ten in pressure rate. Buffalo is number three in offensive EPA and number two in opponent yards per point. Chicago is number 17th in offensive EPA and 30th in opponent yards per point. The Bills are fighting with the Chiefs for the number one seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Bears are fighting for a good draft.
Bills -8 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs New England -3.5 O/U 41.5
It’s gonna be cold and windy in New England like most of the country, so points will come as a premium, Anyone with a brain knows that the Raiders were gifted that win last week vs the Pats. The important thing here is that the Patriots cannot afford to drop a game, while the Bengals are sitting pretty right now in 1st place in the AFC North. Believe it or not, The Patriots have a .2 net yards per play advantage over the tigers. The Patriots have a very good defense ranking number two in EPA while the Bengals rank about 8th. My number actually has this a -2 point favorite for the Bengals and they were saved last week due to pure Buccaneer incompetence allowing them back in that game with four late turnovers. New England was embarrassed last week and this is the get up spot of all get up spots in football. Lastly, Mac Jones is compared to Joe Burrow both coming just one year apart from rival schools in the SEC. I think Jones needs to prove something today. I would rather back the dog fighting for his life over the one fighting for a better meal.
Patriots +3.5 -120 – 2 stars
Teaser: 49ers to -.5 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
