Hi all! It’s no secret that early NFL lines can be the most advantageous at the start of the week, as sharp and public money continuously move in and alter the lines (usually in the “right” direction), making them considerably less valuable. Here’s an early Week 17 line I really love, below!
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NFL Circa Picks: 52-27-1 (65%)
NBA: 111-95 (54%), +19.42 units
Take Dolphins/Titans under 41.5 (-110 at BetOnline), 2 units, here’s why:
- Miami has relied on their defense to “get-right.” Miami has won 7 straight and has only allowed 11.7 ppg during that span.
- The Titans could say the same. Titans games have been sure-fire unders, with their games averaging only 37.2 ppg since Derrick Henry suffered a season-ending injury.
- As a home team, Titans games are 6-2 to the under.
- As an away team, Dolphins games are 4-2 to the under.
- The Miami defense, which has vastly improved since the start of the season, is ranked 7th in opponent rush yards per game and opponent yards per pass. The former will be really useful against a Tennessee offense that’s still predicated on their run game.
- The Titans defense is 2nd in the NFL in opponent rush yards per game and top 10 in opponent pass completion percentage, a great metric when facing Tua and a Miami offense that survives by their dink and dunk, high percentage throws.
- This line is bound to drop, so take it now if you like it!
