LA Rams vs LA Chargers -6.5 O/U 40.5
The battle of the LAs is on, and I think that it is a pretty interesting game. The funny thing this week about capping, is that motivation is starting to be a factor. The Chargers clinched a playoff spot on Monday night with an easy win vs a coach-less and quarterback-less Colts team. The question that I have is, how motivated should the Chargers be in this situation? The best that they can do is move into the top wildcard spot which puts them on the road against likely a hot Jaguars team. It’s better than the Bills or Bengals but it’s not like they won’t have to play them at some point anyways. The Chargers are finally getting healthy and it has shown well, but does that warrant them laying 6.5 points in essentially a neutral game vs their city rivals? I am really like what Shawn McVey is doing with Baker Mayfield towards the end of the season and the super bowl champs are trying to save face. The Chargers only rank 19th in offensive EPA while the Rams are 29th. The Bolts also only 15th in defensive EPA while the Rams rank 16th. This game should be much closer than 6.5 points and I also see some serious scoring. Take the Rams and the over.
Rams +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Over 40.5 – 2 stars
Carolina vs Tampa -3.5 O/U 40.5
What do you do when two bad teams play each other? You take the points. The Buccaneers are more fraudulent than Sam Bankmen-fried and Bernie Madoff volunteering at a soup kitchen. Tampa Bay’s strength used to be stopping the run. This year, due to all of their injury woes, Tampa only ranks 19th in opponent rush EPA while the Panthers rank 7th at 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Carolina ranks 22nd in overall offensive EPA to Tampa’s 23rd. They also bust the Bucs ranking 17th in defensive EPA to Tampa’s 19th. My metrics have Tampa winning this game by 2.7 points, but we also have to remember that Tampa just lost their best offensive tackle in Josh Wells. I see paths to victory here for the Panthers. Grab the points and if you can’t get the hook, wait it out.
Carolina +3.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Cleveland to +8.5 with the Steelers to +8.5 – 2 stars
