Hello football betting fans! Last week we went 8-5 for +10 units on premium picks (and you might want to become a part of the winning team. That is, if you like to win money.. Click this link for a package!). I’m going to try something new this week and you tell me if you like it– I’ll lay out my reasoning for these bets in bulleted format. it takes away some of the art and enjoyment of writing, but the presentation may be easier to comprehend. Let me know what you think! Here are my favorite bets for Week 2:
Steelers -6 (-110), 1.5 units:
- The Raiders played over their heads and ended up winning a sloppy game at home to open up “The Death Star” last Monday night against the Ravens. A let-down feels inevitable, especially under the leadership of Jon Gruden. Remember last year when the Raiders beat the Chiefs on the road? Next week they got exposed and they were ultimately smashed by the Bucs at home, ending in a 45-20 rout. Gruden’s team tends to take on his emotionally volatile personality.
- The Steelers escaped Buffalo with a win that shocked many (not me) last week, and it was led by their defense (as usual). The modern-day Steel-Curtain sacked Josh Allen 3 times, held him under 300 yards passing, and limited the Bills’ offense to 8/18 on 3rd downs and only 16 points. They also scored a special teams touchdown. The Raiders offense, which thrived against a hurting Baltimore secondary last week, will not have the same advantages Sunday in Pittsburgh.
- Las Vegas got the job done last week but they didn’t look great. Penalties, turnovers, and missed opportunities plagued their offense for most of that game. They should be thankful Darren Waller exists– Baltimore’s secondary could not stop him.
- The Ravens earned 3 sacks against Vegas but it didn’t feel like it. Derek Carr often had time and space to get the ball off, resulting in long-gains down the field. Something tells me it’ll be a different experience at Heinz Field.
- Mike Tomlin and the Steelers thrive at home. In 2020, the Steelers were 5-4 ATS, 7-1 straight up in front of their home fans. It only helps that the Raiders have to travel over 5 hours and 3 time-zones for an early game. Advantage, Pitt.
- The Raiders defense got to Lamar Jackson Monday night and looked pretty good for the most part, but I expect some negative regression. At home in a spotlight game in Week 1, everything was in their favor. The Steelers have the talent and leadership to make the Raiders look pedestrian and let’s be honest, the Raiders probably are pedestrian.
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Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC and 5-1 in their last 6 September games. I got the -5.5, which is advantageous, but this one could very easily be a blowout. Take the Steelers to cover and don’t look back.
Dolphins +3.5 (-110), 2 units:
- It’s time we see the Dolphins as a different team, not the one that was terribly flawed for decades leading up to their most recent resurgence. Brian Flores routinely out-smarts even the best NFL coaches and Miami has legitimate talent on their roster, especially in their secondary. In their home opener, I expect Josh Allen to struggle 2 weeks in a row against what’s, to me, another top 5 NFL defense.
- The Bills looked overly deflated after their home opening loss to the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh’s comeback in the 2nd half seemed to startle Josh Allen and their offense, resulting in only 6 points and a ton of missed opportunities in the final 30 minutes.
- Miami’s home-field advantage is a real thing, especially in September. With temperatures routinely in the 80s and 90s. Sunday looks to be hot, humid, and potentially sloppy with some thunderstorms circling southern Florida. That has me leaning to the under and favoring Miami’s side in the trenches.
- The Dolphins were out-played in several categories against the Patriots last week: third down conversion rate, passing yards, total yards, first downs, time of possession, etc. Still, they found a way to win and cover on the road. That’s the story of the modern Dolphins and I don’t see it being any different Sunday. They find a way.
- Miami was the best ATS team in the NFL last year, going 7-1 ATS at home and 11-5 (68.8%) overall in 2020. With Vegas giving us the hook, it’s almost an automatic play on the Dolphins over the key number of 3.
- Boosted by the addition of Jaylen Waddle, the Miami offense wasn’t overwhelming but it was effective enough against a solid defense in New England last week. Tua, as much as we criticize him, showed a renewed confidence and calm under pressure, managing the game throughout and capitalizing on opportunities when his team needed it. Luckily for Tua, his late game INT was vindicated by a Patriots fumble. When they were pinned down in their own end-zone, Tua stepped up and made the passes he needed to, securing the win and running out the clock. I like that mental fortitude.
- The Miami Dolphins are a very live dog, at home, against a divisional opponent with a storied rivalry. Any time that’s the case– grabbing the hook at +3.5 is almost always the side we’ll take. I’m on Miami for 2 units!
