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Saints vs Cowboys -6 O/U 46.5
There isn’t much better than over-reaction week, and I think this line fits in perfectly. The Saints aren’t a bad team per-say, but lets face it. They aren’t average, and if you think that they are average, then you haven’t watched Derek Carr play a lot of football. The Panthers got beat bad last week, but it was more about just being in bad positions and the randomness of football itself. The Panthers needed a pass rush last week and didn’t have one. One thing that the Cowboys do best on defense is a pass rush. Micah Parsons is a complete animal, and he will get to Derek Carr. The Cowboys offense really hasn’t lost a beat. Their only issue is that TE Jake Ferguson will miss the game, but backup TE Luke Schoonmaker is a solid replacement player. Wideouts CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks will be cooking the Saints defense as cornerback Marshon Lattimore is banged up, and Safety Tyrann Mathieu is far past his prime. The Saints also lost some of their depth at linebacker as D’Marco Jackson is out, and Jaylan Ford is questionable. DT Khalen Saunders is also out that should hurt the Saints run defense. I think that the Cowboys should be able to roll this team at home. I have this game Cowboys -8. Take dem boys and lay dem points.
Cowboys -6 – 2 stars
Steelers vs Broncos -2.5 O/U 36.5
It looks like Justin Fields will once again get the nod at quarterback today for the steel machine. There is a lot of variance with Justin which makes it tough to bet on the side, but it also makes the total more interesting. Fields will make some big plays on the ground with his feet. He also has some pretty good wide-outs to throw too. The big thing that Steelers fans have to worry about with fields is the turnovers. Last year, Fields fumbled the ball 10 times, and he also was picked off 9 times. Denver on the other hand has a terrible defense, and we saw all of that last week in Seattle. In 2023, this team ranked 25th in defensive EPA and that was before they lost some of their great players this year to free agency. I expect the Steelers to put up 20 points. On the other hand, Bo Nix in his small preseason sample size showed that he is actually quite a capable quarterback. He knows how to make some plays with his arm as well as his legs. He also has some pretty good playmakers at WR with Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds. With the Broncos at home, this total is just too small for this game. Any special teams touchdown or pick six blows this wide open if needed. Take the over.
Over 36.5 – 2 stars
Teaser 6 pt: Lions to -1.5 with the Broncos to +8.5 – 2.5 stars
