Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase for another 3 days until October 2nd! 35-23 in College Football up 27 Units and 23-18 in the NFL up 8U!
Carolina vs Dallas -4.5 O/U 50
I must say that the Dallas Cowboys have definitely improved on both sides of the ball. You have to wonder where this Dan Quinn defense was during his tenure at the Falcons. The Cowboys have had a pretty hard schedule so far and they are 3-0 ATS but they have also been beneficiaries in the turnover game being a huge +5 in turnover ratio and I am not sure that is sustainable in a Mike McCarthy coached team. I also have to point out the fact that their Chargers victory seemed very one sided to me and I don’t know if they deserved that win. Dallas’s defense is still very suspect in yards per play allowing a 3rd worst at allowing 6.7 yards per play. Carolina’s defense has been fantastic. The Panthers are number 1 in pressure rate as well as Pass and Rush EPA. Now Carolina has had a few offensive struggles, but Sam Darnold looks a lot more comfortable under Matt Rhule’s system ranking 6th in QBR which has helped the Panthers achieve a huge +10.2 points in ATS margin further showing that the market hasn’t caught up with them as of yet. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the rest factor. Dallas is facing the Panthers on a short week while the Panthers have 10 days to prepare for this team. I know that they will be missing Christian McCaffrey but Chuba Hubbard and Royce Freeman should fit right in here. I am going to take the Panthers to cover the spread and possibly win outright n Dallas.
Carolina +4.5 – 2 stars and season that money-line
Arizona vs LA Rams -4.5 O/U 55
Now this should be a great game at So-Fi Stadium with 2 undefeated teams squaring off. Both teams are 2-1 ATS. Now the Rams took the Cardinals out of the playoffs last year and I am sure that it is baked into their minds that this is the hurdle that they must overcome in order to take a big step forward. The Cardinals have been solid on both sides of the ball ranking 4th in overall DVOA. Their biggest weakness is against the run but the Rams are a weak 30th in rushing yards per attempt at 3.3 which softens the blow of that matchup. The Rams rank 3rd in overall DVOA and they seem to move the ball quite well with all of those offensive weapons but this is a let down spot for them being that they just beat the Super Bowl champs and I could see them struggle a bit to contain that AZ pass rush with JJ Watt and Chandler Jones coming after Matt the Statue Stafford. My power ratings have the spread at around 4.25 if you don’t factor in the let down, but I think that the Cardinals get it done if they can stop the run this week like they did vs the Titans and if Kyler Murray can break contain and get some big chunks of yards. My Algorithm has the Rams winning 28.5 to 26 which covers a three point spread, and much of that is because Arizona has allowed less yards on defense.
Cardinals +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Refuse to lose teasers are 2-1 so far this season: 6pt. Tease the Saints down to -2 with the Buccaneers down to -1 – 2 stars
