Some people don’t care what the sports betting market does, and some people do. If you don’t want to be influenced by the market, this article is not for you. For those who like the information gained from the market, I gathered some of what I think is interesting. In this article, I created a rudimentary chart of what info is available about the very efficient NFL market to answer some personal questions (numbers courteous of Football:All (wagertalk.com)).
My main question is… With all these states legalizing sports betting, are these numbers about the number of tickets and percentage of money being diluted? I hear of successful bettors getting limited (bucket list item of mine) and the consolidation of books happening very quickly. It makes me wonder about the symbiotic relationship between the “sharps” who are able to bet because the books value their information to adjust their lines. Long story short, the money is still sharp. Here’s a chart I created for the Week 4 spread information… We can see where the most popular side was compared to the amount of money as percentages. Hopefully one can understand my gibberish.
| Spread High. Tix% | Team | Tickets% | Spread Result | Money% | $ Diff. Correct | Line Move Margin | Move Correct? |
| 1 | KC | 79% | COVER | 76% | N | -0.5 | Y |
| 2 | TB | 77% | loss | 54% | Y | -1 | N |
| 3 | SEA | 77% | COVER | 77% | Y | 1 | Y |
| 4 | GB | 66% | COVER | 51% | N | 0.5 | N |
| 5 | DET | 65% | loss | 57% | Y | 3 | N |
| 6 | CIN | 64% | loss | 54% | Y | -1 | N |
| 7 | LAR | 62% | loss | 51% | Y | 2.5 | Y |
| 8 | DAL | 61% | COVER | 54% | N | 0.5 | N |
| 9 | TEN | 61% | loss | 68% | N | 0.5 | Y |
| 10 | MIA | 60% | loss | 54% | Y | 0 | P |
| 11 | LAC | 59% | COVER | 59% | N | 0 | P |
| 12 | BAL | 58% | COVER | 59% | Y | 2 | N |
| 13 | WAS | 57% | COVER | 59% | Y | -1 | Y |
| 14 | NYG | 54% | COVER | 61% | Y | 0.5 | N |
| 15 | HOU | 54% | loss | 53% | Y | -2 | Y |
| 16 | CLE | 52% | COVER | 61% | Y | 1 | N |
| LINE MOVE=TEAM COVER | $ Correct? | 11W 5L | |||||
| 6W 8L |
I also added in, for curiosity purposes… When you see a spread move towards in a team’s favor or against that team, generally, is that indicative of that team covering the spread? While it’s more complicated than it seems, from a one week sample? Not really.
For example, GB went from a -6.5 to a -6 favorite. In that case, the money came in on PIT. So the line moved towards PIT, but GB covered easily. So you can’t really predict an outcome based on a line move. And the money % difference was wrong on that game.
The chart shows us that where the lines had moved, that went 6-8 on the week, 2 lines did not move. But, what we also see in the chart, is that where the % of money differed from the % of tickets, that went 11-5. Meaning, the money leaned towards the correct result of the game. What’s the difference? My opinion, sometimes the public can move a line. Sometimes, one respected bettor could move a line, one book moves and the rest follow. That’s hard to predict. Interesting?
Now I’ve heard, and I could be wrong, that there’s 3 types of bettors. Numbers guys (meaning modelers essentially), steam chasers, and just fans of the game. What this info tells us is that steam chasing moving lines is the wrong way to go. Steam chasing the money, well, this week it looks like something worth following.
To be honest, I don’t necessarily follow the money myself every game I want to play. However, when I see all of the tickets, all of the money, or a huge disparity between tickets and money- it has swung me on some big plays. Thus, I think following the money is worth looking at.
Here I spent some time looking at the totals market, creating a similar chart…
| Total High. Tix% | Teams | Tickets% | Total Result | Money% | $ Diff. Correct? | Total Move | Move Correct Direction |
| 1 | ARI/ LAR | o82% | OVER | o84% | Y | 1 | Y |
| 2 | SEA/ SF | o75% | under | o56% | Y | 2.5 | N |
| 3 | JAX/ CIN | o73% | under | o58% | Y | 0 | P |
| 4 | LAC/ LVR | o69% | under | o60% | Y | -1 | Y |
| 5 | IND/ MIA | u68% | OVER | u87% | N | -3.5 | N |
| 6 | TEN/ NYJ | u66% | OVER | u59% | Y | -4 | Y |
| 7 | WAS/ ATL | u64% | OVER | u54% | Y | -2 | N |
| 8 | KC/ PHI | o64% | OVER | o53% | N | -0.5 | N |
| 9 | CLE/ MIN | o64% | under | o61% | Y | 1.5 | N |
| 10 | TB/ NE | u62% | under | u55% | N | -1.5 | Y |
| 11 | PIT/ GB | o61% | under | o79% | N | -3 | Y |
| 12 | HOU/ BUF | u60% | under | u84% | Y | -0.5 | Y |
| 13 | CAR/ DAL | u57% | OVER | u56% | Y | 1.5 | Y |
| 14 | DET/ CHI | u54% | under | o50% | N | -4 | Y |
| 15 | BAL/ DEN | o52% | under | o57% | N | 0 | P |
| 16 | NYG/ NOR | u52% | OVER | o69% | Y | -4.5 | N |
| LINE MOVE=Correct Direction | $ Correct? | 10W 6L | |||||
| 8W 6L |
With the totals, it looks like the moves were indeed the right direction for the most part- 8-6, with 2 totals that did not move. The difference between the money and the tickets show that where the money leaned, that went 10-6 on the week. I think that the totals markets are the sharper between the two I have charted. But again, we see where the money difference was. And we see it was, dare I say- more better, ha… So, something worth looking at before making that bet? Maybe… Numbers don’t lie. I know that there’s a lot of guys way better at this than I am. I just know I need to be better about looking at these numbers myself.
In my experience, sometimes looking at the money has put me on a game or taken me off a game. Mostly games I leaned one way or the other, but maybe not confident in my numbers I’m looking at, or what I’m hearing or seeing from outside sources. I want to be better about it on games I might be 50/50, 60/40, maybe even 70/30 about. We’ll take a look later in the season and see how it’s working out in my next NFL Market Recap! I’ll shorten the article next time, promise. Haven’t figured out a way to get my charts to look better on the phone than it does on the computer, sorry about that- working on it.
