NFL Week 4 TNF Lions-Packers

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Detroit at Green Bay +2.5 O/U 45 (DK’s)

8:15pm ET

We have ourselves an NFC North clash, with division title aspirations in mind for each team. Considering Minnesota is 0-3, and the Bears are arguably or not arguably the worst team in football, the NFC North winner will most likely come from one of these two squads. Making Thursday night’s game even more important for tiebreaker terms, confidence, and momentum as we progress into the 2023 season.

Look were in week 4, talking division titles I know is crazy to even bring up, but I also think it shows the significance of this game.

What I think will end up being the difference in winning and losing this game is quite simple. It will ultimately come down to the head coaches. Whose team is better prepared tonight will end up being victorious. Dan Campbell is now in his 4th year in Detroit and has all the buzz and hype surrounding his Lions. Winning week 1 at Arrowhead has made this hype and talk even more inevitable. Now I question, was this win a slight overreaction? Absolutely. No Chris Jones and more importantly there was no Travis Kelce in an offense who is still finding their stride in 2023 as we enter week 4. They went on to split home games vs Seattle and Atlanta in weeks 2/3, and now go back on the road on a short week to Lambeau. Where he will face the winning machine Matt LaFleur who is 49-20 in his tenure in GB. Winning 13 games in each of his first three seasons. Now you’re probably thinking, well yeah, he had Aaron Rodgers as his QB of course he won many games. To me it’s more than that. The preparation for his teams is second to none. Which greatly favors Jordan Love, because from a pure talent standpoint, the Lions obviously have the edge at QB with Goff, as opposed to Love. But, when you have your OC and HC “giving you the answers” (my famous term, or hope to be famous one day), these guys are WIDE open.

I think this game will end up boiling down to the Packer O-line vs Detroit’s ferocious D-line. Will the Pack OL hold up long enough, to give Love ample time to make these throws. The Packers have been playing 2023 without their #1 WR in Christian Watson, regardless of your opinion on him, he was and still is considered their number 1 option through the air. Joining Watson will be reliable tailback Aaron Jones who can beat you on the ground as well as the air, who missed weeks 2 and 3 due to a hamstring issue.

I just think in the end with Detroit playing a division foe on a short week, with a head coach who can make drastic mistakes jeopardizing his team at any time is a recipe for disaster. Give me the cheeseheads with the points on Thursday at Lambeau!

Packers +2.5 (DraftKings -110) risk 1.38u to win 1.25u

Prop: Love Pass yds over 234.5 (DraftKings -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5u

Prop: Musgrave Rec yds over 35.5 (BetMGM -120) risk 0.3u to win 0.25u

Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…

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