Buffalo vs Tennessee -3 O/U 38
Well the Titans sure looked good in Atlanta but that was pretty much due to one guy named AJ Brown. I think the Bills have proved enough this year with that monster defense. They held Brady to one of his all time low QB ratings last game at 19.5. Buffalo ranks 2nd in defensive yards per game at 28 and 5th in points per game at 15.8. They actually also have a decent offense ranking 9th in yards per game while Tennessee ranks 25th. The Bills also rank higher in Overall efficiency DVOA at 9th to Tennessee’s 13th. The Titans need to establish the run to open up the passing game because Mariota just isn’t top tier talent. Buffalo ranks 7th against the run. I think even with Matt Barkley the Bills have a chance to win this one outright. Taking Buffalo with the points and I like it down to 1.5
Buffalo +3 – 2 star premium shared
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh -4 O/U 44
What is better in the gambling world than a home dog? A home dog over 3 points in the NFL? Maybe. Baltimore was a lot of smoke and mirrors when they started out the season against Miami, Arizona and the Kansas City defense. Now teams have film on Lamar and these games should titan up a little. For this game the stats will completely go against me here because of 1 huge discrepancy. That is the strength of schedule. On Sagarin Baltimore ranks 29th in that and Pittsburgh ranks 5th. As a matter of fact, Sagarin has Pittsburgh power rated ahead of Baltimore! Now I am not going to go that far but I do have this game as a Pickem due to Pitts Home field in my power ratings. It looks to me that Mason Rudolf has been coming along nicely being 24-28 with 2 TDs. I have to go with the points here for the home doggy dog in a rivalry and like it anywhere above 2.
Pittsburgh +4 – 2 stars premium shared and sprinkle
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41
Two years ago I would be betting the under here but my how things have changed. This is a bold one but I like these 2 young QBs a lot and I think they will be in a little bit of a shootout here. Kyle Allen has completed over 70% of his passes the last 2 games and Garner Minshew and his mustache has put up some points. I also like the fact that Jalen Ramsey is not playing these games. Jacksonville’s D is good but not great as it was a few years ago. Carolina’s D looks good only because they played an easier schedule ranking 20th and they still give up 20 points per game. This total is too low here for these 2 young gun-slingers in this day and age of the NFL.
Jacksonville vs Carolina Over 41 – 3 star premium shared
Teaser: Going to tease the Giants to +11.5 and the Falcons to +11 – 2 star
