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New England vs Cleveland -3 O/U 43
Lots of questions this game. Who will be quarterback for the Patriots especially now that Mac Jones is questionable? I think the answer is clearly Bailey Zappe who played wonderfully vs the Lions. I honestly have the Browns, and the Patriots minus Mac Jones power rated pretty evenly making my spread on this game close to a pickem, but it is the total that I am looking at here. Now let’s face it, the Lions should have scored some points last game in Foxborough gaining over 300 yards, and I think that it shows the Patriots defense much better than they actually are. Cleveland themselves is a pretty fast paced team ranking 5th in plays per game. Their numbers look good althought their strength of schedule has been quite easy thus far. The Patriots and Browns are looked at to be rushing teams and that is why this total is so low, but if you actually look at the advanced stats, you will see that the Browns rank dead last in Rush EPA and the Patriots rank 27th. On the other hand, the Browns rank 3rd in offensive EPA scoring 26.6 points per game while the Patriots rank an average 15th at 20.6 points per game. The weather is looking good in Cleveland for Sunday and I am taking this over.
Over 43 – 2 stars
Carolina vs LA Rams 10 O/U 40.5
Sometimes you have to get a little dirty before you get clean. Something is very wrong with this Rams team. They are just not good after a strong 5 week sample size. The Shams rank 30th in offensive EPA on a positive turnover differential. Believe it or not, the Panthers are the better rushing team at 90 yards per game compared to 62 for the Rams. This is significant considering that this total is lower than 41 The Panthers are a bad team and they lost their quarterback Baker Mayfield to injury last week, but in all seriousness, how much should we downgrade them to PJ Walker? Can’t be more than three points, and PJ has been with this team for some time now. When a coach gets fired, it is a play on spot and I think that the Panthers have a shot here to somewhat redeem themselves. The Rams move the ball through the air and that is the only thing that the Panthers are decent at stopping on defense ranking 21st in drop-back EPA and 8th in success rate. I think that they can keep this game within 10 points.
Panthers +10 – 2 stars
