Miami vs Chicago +4 O/U 44.5
The Bears have traded some defensive guys away and its just part of the business of rebuilding. The Market seemed to go Miami’s way by a half point or so after the Roquan Smith news, but later in the week, it went back down and even lower to 4. Too be honest. I am not so sure the Lions are better than the Chicago Bears and this line closed at -3.5. The Bears defense stinks, but this team is quietly ranked 17th in offensive EPA margin and they have a top 3 rushing offense at 5.3 yards per rush. Miami has improved some with Tua, but I do not like how his passes are soft and flutter in the air so long. Plus it will be pretty windy in the city, and I think that leaves a lot of room for interceptions. The Bears have a bad front seven, but they have a pretty good secondary. I think the Bears have the ability with Justin Fields to back door if not win outright. Miami believe it or not, only has a .6 net yards per play advantage over the Bears. I don’t like how Miami is on back to back road games here and I think that they Bears could cause some disruption. Take da Bears.
Bears +4 – 2 stars
Chargers vs Falcons +3 O/U 49.5
Did you see that huge Falcons win last week? If you think by any means that the Panthers offense is better than the Chargers, then I have a bridge to sell you. The Falcons are a good running team and they will get Patterson back this week. The Chargers rank 27th in opponent rush EPA giving up a league worst 5.7 rushing yards per attempt. The Falcons defense isn’t exactly good either giving up a league worst 307 passing yards per game ranking 30th in drop-back success rate. You also can’t ignore the JC Jackson injury for the bolts which will hurt their passing defense as well as all of the secondary injured for the Falcons. Taking the over.
Over 49.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Bengals to -1 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
