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Commanders vs Buccaneers -3 O/U 50.5
This should be a fun high flying game between two teams that many did not expect in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield has been poised this season leading his offense to rank in the top four in scoring at 29.5 points per game. Certainly a great feat, but we also must credit rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels who brought his offense ranking 5th at 28.5 points per game. Both of these teams are great at rushing the ball with Tampa ranking 3rd in yards per rush at 5.3 and Washington ranking 4th at 5.0. Tampa Bay gets the nod for passing as they rank 3rd in passing yards per game at 250 while Washington is 17th at 215. On defense, the Commanders are great at stopping the pass ranking 3rd while Tampa Bay ranks a bad 29th. Against the run, Tampa is the much better team with Vita Vea clocking up the middle ranking 9th in opponent yards per rush at 4.3 while Washington ranks 28th allowing 4.8. Both defenses have their issues. One thing that Todd Bowles likes to do is blitz. Jayden Daniels ranks 6th against pressure rate on PFF.com. The path to victory for the Commanders is to get Jayden Daniels passing the ball and allowing him to use his legs. The path to victory for Tampa is to run the ball and keep the Commanders honest. I really think numbers wise, that these two teams are very closely matched. Maybe you can give an edge to Baker Mayfield for not being a rookie quarterback, but that’s about it. I will give a slight coaching advantage to Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as they are the better situational coaches over Todd Bowles and Liam Coen. This game should be pick-em on a neutral field and I am not giving the Buccaneers three points for home field advantage.
Commanders +3 – 1.5 stars
Teaser: Bills to -2.5 with the Rams to +8.5 – 3 stars – I expect the bills to take care of business as they had a nice week off last week. I also expect the Rams to show up even with the distractions. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the gang have been there before.
