San Francisco vs Dallas -3 O/U 51
I have to appreciate what San Francisco did here to get to the post season. No playoff team has had more ups and downs than the 49ers this year and you have to appreciate the great play of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranking 4th in EPA + Completion percentage over expectation and 14th in QBR. In saying that, Dak Prescott isn’t exactly a pushover himself ranking 14th in EPA + CPOE and 9th in QBR. San Francisco probably has the coaching advantage here with Shanahan vs McCarthy, but Dallas has been red hot most of the season and they seem to have more talent at the skill positions. San Francisco is 6th in offensive EPA while Dallas ranks 7th but Dallas ranks 3rd in defensive EPA while the Niners rank 13th. Dallas is number 1 in DVOA while the 49ers are number 6 from football outsiders. Now for me, I see that Dallas has a very tight aggressive defense where they will give up a few big plays in order to jump routs and force interceptions. Dallas has also kept a lot of their opponents out the the end zone only allowing a 7th best 21.1 points per game on much harder schedule than San Francisco. The kicker for me here is that Dallas has a nice passing matchup advantage ranking 6th in drop-back EPA on offense to the 49ers 23rd on defense. I think Dallas can keep scoring points unlike the Rams did last week. Gotta go with the Boys.
Dallas -3 -115 – 2.5 stars
