I have my eyes on a 3-way first period play in the sole game on the NHL slate tonight in New York where the Carolina Hurricanes travel to meet up with the New York Rangers. Both teams come off overtime games where they had similar winning results (sorry for those who tailed my UNDER play in the Bruins/Rangers game that had the tying 6th goal scored in last couple minutes of the 3rd period).
Tonight, this play is purely situational for me, and I think there are some numbers that can back this up. At the risk of sounding like the guy who says “If I would have made some puts my score would be awesome”, I very badly wanted to take the Rangers in the 1st period against Boston. I wanted to because of the raw numbers. Tonight, I am going to recommend you take them, not JUST because I wish I had played it the other night, BUT more so because of the situation.
The Rangers have at least a day of rest over the Canes here. The Canes are solid and many score projection sites have models that would assume they cover ATS against the Rangers. But, knowing that the Canes went into OT last night, and are on their 3rd road game in as many days, and face two more road games after tonight, this is a sandwich spot here for the Canes that I think provides a reason to look at the Rangers in the first period.
On Bovada, as an example, you can take the Rangers 3-way betting line in the first period for +180. From a long term betting perspective, in the NHL especially, these are the kind of sweet spots to look for given there is so much positive EV.
Stats to back up the play: Rangers at home first period GF/GA – 25/18 on the season; Canes averaging 2.6 goals in division play and 2.8 in road games while giving up 3.1 gpg on the road. Opponents shooting 12.6% L4 games against Mrazek who is slated in the posts tonight for Carolina; Lundqvuist solid at home holding opponents to 9%. Rangers home defense ranks 9th in goals allowed compared to Canes road offense ranking of 20th in goals scored. Will the Canes outperform their season rankings (which assumes ups and downs through the year) off a B2B road game, without rest, playing their third road game in 4 days? Worth investing that they won’t!
Play: Rangers 1st Period 3-way line +180
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