NHL Picks & Player Props – January 17th, 2024 – Buffalo Sabres vs Chicago Blackhawks

We have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

Detroit Red Wings @ Florida Panthers

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Detroit Red Wings: 22-16-5, 4th Atlantic (11-9-1 Away)
• Florida Panthers: 27-13-3, 2nd Atlantic (13-6-1 Home)

The Detroit Red Wings head to Florida on a hot streak winning 6 of their last ten games. If you look at a more recent sample size, they’ve won five of their last six. During that span, their offense has averaged 3.83 GF/GP slightly more than their season average of 3.56 which ranks 4th. While Detroit’s offense has been impressive as of late, their goaltending has been the real star. The reason why I highlight the goaltending instead of the defensive unit is that they’re still giving up a ton of chances. Alex Lyon has been great for them with a +7.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 14 games. James Reimer, who played in the Red Wing’s last game hasn’t had a great season (-6.8 GSAx) but was better in that matchup with a +0.81 GSAx in their win over Toronto. In terms of injuries, Patrick Kane is out due to a lower-body injury and Jake Walman is out due to an illness.

After winning nine straight games following the holiday break, the Florida Panthers have dropped their last two games to inferior opponents. Against New Jersey when they lost 4-1 they were -220 favorites and against Anaheim when they lost 5-4 in OT they were -347 favorites. In both those games, their goaltending was horrendous. On the year, Anthony Stolarz has a +3.6 GSAx, and Sergei Bobrovsky has a +6.7 GSAx. However, vs New Jersey, Bobrovsky had a -1.73 GSAx, and against Anaheim Stolarz had a -2.69 GSAx. Florida now has a chance again to right the ship against an inferior opponent who they’ve historically dominated winning the last ten matchups against Detroit.

• Lean: Florida Panthers in Regulation (-160)

DET: Alex Lyon (9-4-1) 2.58 GAA, .922 SV%, +7.1 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (21-10-1) 2.45 GAA, .911 SV%, +6.7 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Montreal Canadiens: 18-18-7, 6th Atlantic (9-7-4 Away)
• New Jersey Devils: 22-16-3, 6th Metropolitan (9-9-2 Home)

The Canadiens are coming off an impressive win against Colorado on Monday night defeating them 4-3. However, if we look at a broad sample size, they’ve gone 3-5-2 in their last ten games. Montreal will play their first game of a three-game road trip on Wednesday night against an injury-ridden Devils team. The good news for the Canadiens is that they’ve been better on the road posting a 9-7-4 record compared to a 9-11-3 record at home.

While the Devils are 6-3-1 in their last ten games, they’ve lost three of their last four games. Their only win during that span came against the Florida Panthers. As I mentioned before, this team has a ton of injuries including Meier, Hamilton, Hughes, and Palat just to name a few.

Earlier this season the Devils defeated the Habs 5-2 where former Canadien Tyler Toffoli posted a hat trick. Jack Hughes also had a stellar game recording four assists.

MTL: Sam Montembeault (9-6-4) 2.89 GAA, .909 SV%, +3.4 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

NJD: Nico Daws (3-2-0) 2.64 GAA, .921 SV%, +2.8 GSAx [CONFIRMED]

Chicago Blackhawks @ Buffalo Sabres

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Chicago Blackhawks: 13-29-2, 8th Central (4-18-1 Away)
• Buffalo Sabres: 19-21-4, 7th Atlantic (10-11-1 Home)

Chicago snapped their three-game losing streak last night defeating the San Jose Sharks 2-1 in a Shootout. Even with the win last night, the Blackhawks have still lost eight of their last ten games. During that stretch of games, the Blackhawks offense has averaged 1.60 GF/GP compared to their season average of 2.26 (31st). The good news for Chicago is that they’ve slightly improved defensively going from 3.54 GA/GP to 3.50 GA/GP in their last ten. The reason for that dip in scoring is due to their depleted roster with Bedard, Foligio, Johnson, and Beauvillier all being out. Taylor Hall, who was playing on their top line to start the season was injured back in November and is out for the season which hurts as well. On no days rest this season, Chicago is 0-6 with the total going under in five of those games as well. The last time these teams played earlier in the season, the Blackhawks had a game the night before as well.

The Sabres certainly have had the season they were hoping for after missing out on the playoffs by one point last year. They’ve failed to find consistency this season only winning multiple games in a row twice! Buffalo has been playing better as of late winning four of their last six games. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been one of the main reasons why this team has found success during that span. He’s only allowed more than one goal against in one of his last four starts. If Buffalo has any hope of turning their season around and getting closer to that .500 mark, they need to win against inferior opponents like Chicago.

CHI: Arvid Soderblom (2-13-1) 4.01 GAA, .875 SV%, -6.5 GSAx [EXPECTED]

BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (10-9-2) 2.77 GAA, .906 SV%, +1.0 GSAx [EXPECTED]

Sides/ Totals:

Late Add:

Montreal Canadiens/ New Jersey Devils Under 6.5 (-105) – DraftKings

THE SABRES GAME HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL TOMORROW

• Buffalo Sabres 1st Period -0.5 (+105) – DraftKings

These teams played earlier this season where the Sabres beat the Blackhawks 3-2. We have a similar situation tonight as Chicago had a game the night before in that first matchup. With their forward core decimated due to injuries, the Blackhawks have struggled to produce goals. In their last five games, they’ve averaged only one goal (60 minutes) per game. They’ve also only held a lead after the first period in one of those five matchups. I think Buffalo gets off to a strong start tonight and should be able to get out to an early lead.

Player Props:

THE SABRES GAME HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL TOMORROW

• Tage Thompson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetMGM
  • Thompson has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 5.8 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last three games at home.
  • Chicago currently ranks 27th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.59. On the road, that number jumps to 32.91. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 31.70 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games.
  • Against Chicago, Thompson has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in each of his last three matchups.

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All Data Provided by Linemate and Shot Propz.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.