NHL Player Props – March 6th, 2024 – Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs

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We only have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few player props to take a look at.

 

Player Props:

  • Alex Tuch over 0.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings

Alex Tuch’s season hasn’t unfolded quite as he had envisioned. Despite an impressive performance in the 2022-23 season, where he consistently averaged over a point per game, his current tally stands at 40 points through 55 games this season.

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Reviewing his recent performance, Tuch has only managed a point in four out of his last ten games. Interestingly, his away games tell a different story, as he’s recorded a point in eight out of his last ten. Additionally, Tuch boasts an impressive track record against the Leafs, having earned a point in seven out of his last eight matchups against them.

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Tuch finds himself on Buffalo’s top line alongside Tage Thompson and Jordan Greenway, a trio that has dominated ice time for the forward group over the past three games. Moreover, Tuch holds a key position on Buffalo’s top Power Play unit, which is expected to be active tonight given Toronto’s recent penchant for taking multiple penalties.

In terms of defensive statistics, Toronto sits at 20th in goals against per game (GA/GP), averaging 3.16. Their home record reflects a slight dip in performance, conceding an average of 3.35 GA/GP this season. Meanwhile, the Sabres have experienced a decline in offensive output compared to last year, ranking 24th in goals for per game (GF/GP) with an average of 2.94. Nonetheless, they’ve displayed greater potency on the road, averaging 3.10 GF/GP.

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Ilya Samsonov is slated to start for the Maple Leafs tonight, though he’s had a challenging season with a 0.883 save percentage and a 3.23 goals-against average (GAA). In his recent five starts, Samsonov has allowed three goals or more on four occasions. Additionally, he has struggled against Buffalo historically, conceding an average of 3.75 goals against in his previous four starts against them.

This rivalry has also been characterized by high-scoring affairs, with the last seven matchups all surpassing the total of 6.5 goals.

 

  • Tage Thompson over 0.5 Points (-135) – DraftKings

Tage Thompson has been grappling with injuries throughout the year, but after the All-Star break, he seems to have returned to full health.

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Analyzing his recent performance, Thompson has only managed to register a point in five out of his last ten games. Interestingly, his away games tell a different tale, as he has recorded a point in seven out of his last ten. Additionally, Thompson boasts an impressive track record against the Leafs, having earned a point in eight out of his last nine matchups against them.

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Thompson finds himself on Buffalo’s top line alongside Alex Tuch and Jordan Greenway, a trio that has commanded the lion’s share of ice time for the forward group over the past three games. Additionally, he holds a crucial position on Buffalo’s top Power Play unit, which is expected to be active tonight given the Leafs’ recent trend of taking multiple penalties in their games.

In terms of defensive statistics, Toronto sits at 20th in goals against per game (GA/GP), averaging 3.16. Their home record reflects a slight dip in performance, conceding an average of 3.35 GA/GP this season. Meanwhile, the Sabres have experienced a decline in offensive output compared to last year, ranking 24th in goals for per game (GF/GP) with an average of 2.94. Nonetheless, they’ve displayed greater potency on the road, averaging 3.10 GF/GP.

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Ilya Samsonov is slated to start for the Maple Leafs tonight, though he’s had a challenging season with a 0.883 save percentage and a 3.23 goals-against average (GAA). In his recent five starts, Samsonov has allowed three goals or more on four occasions. Additionally, he has struggled against Buffalo historically, conceding an average of 3.75 goals against in his previous four starts against them.

This rivalry has also been characterized by high-scoring affairs, with the last seven matchups all surpassing the total of 6.5 goals.

 

  • Devon Toews over 0.5 Points (+110) – DraftKings

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Devon Toews has showcased remarkable streakiness this NHL season. Observing his recent performances, Toews has notched a point in seven out of his last ten games. Particularly at home, his game has flourished, registering a point in four of his last five matchups. Additionally, Toews boasts an impressive track record against the Red Wings, having secured a point in four out of his last five encounters with them.

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Toews anchors Colorado’s top defensive pairing alongside Cale Makar, commanding the majority of ice time for the defensive group over the past three games. Additionally, he plays a significant role on Colorado’s second Power Play unit, which is expected to be active tonight against the Red Wings, who have been prone to taking multiple penalties in recent games.

Detroit ranks 21st in goals against per game (GA/GP), averaging 3.20, with their road performance slightly worse, conceding an average of 3.32 GA/GP this season. On the offensive front, the Avalanche have been exceptional, leading the league in goals for per game (GF/GP) with an average of 3.65. Their home games have been particularly fruitful, averaging 4.27 GF/GP this season.

Alex Lyon is anticipated to start for the Red Wings tonight. While he has maintained a decent save percentage of 0.911 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.79 this season, he has struggled in his recent ten starts, allowing three goals or more on eight occasions.

 

  • Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 Points (-130) – DraftKings

Nathan MacKinnon currently shares the lead for the most points in the NHL, boasting an impressive tally of 105 points.

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Examining his recent performances, MacKinnon has recorded at least two points in seven out of his last ten games. Particularly at home, he has excelled, tallying at least two points in six out of his last seven matchups. Furthermore, MacKinnon has demonstrated notable prowess against the Red Wings, achieving at least two points in two out of his last three encounters with them

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MacKinnon anchors Colorado’s first line alongside Artturi Lehkonen and Mikko Rantanen, a trio that has dominated ice time for the forward group over the past three games. Additionally, he plays a pivotal role on Colorado’s top Power Play unit, which is expected to be active tonight against the Red Wings, who have been prone to taking multiple penalties in their recent games.

Detroit ranks 21st in goals against per game (GA/GP), averaging 3.20, with their road performance slightly worse, conceding an average of 3.32 GA/GP this season. On the offensive front, the Avalanche have been exceptional, leading the league in goals for per game (GF/GP) with an average of 3.65. Their home games have been particularly fruitful, averaging 4.27 GF/GP this season.

Alex Lyon is anticipated to start for the Red Wings tonight. While he has maintained a decent save percentage of 0.911 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.79 this season, he has struggled in his recent ten starts, allowing three goals or more on eight occasions.

 

Linemate and Shot Propz provided all Player Prop Data.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

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