What a start to the Western Conference Finals with Colorado beating the Oilers 8-6 in an absolute barn burner. The Avalanche looked to have a comfortable lead heading into the third when the Oilers scored twice to made it a one goal game late. Colorado was able to hold on and take a 1-0 Series lead. The total was set at 7.0 in that matchup which is something I’ve only seen once before, and that was earlier in the post season this year.
The New York Rangers, who I’m still not sold on, advance to the Eastern Conference Finals to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Rangers have won two Game 7’s to start the playoffs beating Pittsburgh and most recently Carolina. Igor Shesterkin has been unbelievable following some struggles in the first round. He leads the playoffs with a +11.4 GSAx barely edging out none other than Andrei Vasilevskiy (+11.0).
The Lightning had some struggles in the first round but were able to beat the Leafs in 7 games. In the second round they only needed four games to beat their interstate rival and come into the Eastern Conference Finals well rested. Despite missing Brayden Point in their last series, the Bolts showed no signs of slowing down and look to be a serious contender for winning their third Stanley Cup in a row.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to New York to take on this young Rangers squad. These teams have matched up three times during the regular season. Shockingly, the Rangers won every one of those games. In all three of those games, the Lightning went off as the favorite with the total being set at 5.5 in the majority of those matchups. Despite the low total, the under hit in two of those three games.
The main storyline for this series is Igor Shesterkin vs Andrei Vasilevskiy. After going 1-2 to start the post season, Shesterkin is now 7-3 with a 2.09 GAA and .939 SV%. Just like Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy struggled a bit in the start of the playoffs. Since game seven in the first round, Andrei Vasilevskiy is undefeated going 5-0 with a 0.80 GAA and .978 SV%. Shesterkin looks to be the clear winner of the Vezina Trophy this season with Vasilevskiy looking to repeat as the Conn Smythe winner.
When I look at Game 1 of this series it’s a tale of two stories. The Rangers last Eastern Conference Finals appearance came back in 2015 and oddly enough it was against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts would go on to defeat the Blue shirts that year before losing in the Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been in this spot the past two seasons and advanced to the finals both times.
The Lightning one of those teams that have been to the playoffs enough and know when to turn it on. Their a veteran group with plenty of depth that just seems to know how to win when it matters.
New York on the other hand has a young core led by a netminder who’s only in this third season. The Rangers kind of remind me a little bit of Montreal last year but with more offensive firepower. Despite their lack of experience in the post season, they’ve proven they can handle the bright lights winning a pair of seven-game series.
PICK: [1U] TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-125) – BETMGM
PICK: [1U] NYR/ TBL UNDER 5.5 (-110) – BETMGM
Despite losing all three games against the Rangers in the regular season, the Lightning transform into a different team in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s veteran lineup had the ability to rest up for a few extra days and should be ready to go. New York on the other hand only had one day off but the Rangers young lineup should be able to handle the quick turn around. This is a tough game to predict as New York has continuously proven people wrong in the playoffs however, I think their run ends here. They should give Tampa Bay a good series but I think they’re outmatched in every area and Tampa Bay goaltender that can matchup with Shesterkin.
By no means do I think this game will be a blowout which why I also like the Under 5.5. Given the recent run these netminders had, it’s hard to imagine we see a Game 1 like Colorado/ Edmonton. The Rangers faced sub-par goaltenders in the first two series but have their work cut out for them against Vasilevskiy in this matchup.
Tampa Bay is only averaging 2.45 GA/GP with New York not far behind averaging 3.00 GA/GP. The Rangers have had some solid offensive production but again, I don’t think will see that against this Lightning team who plays very solid defensive hockey. The Rangers have relied on their Power Play to propel them past the first two rounds but the Lightning have one of the best penalty kills this post season and should be able to limit their production.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
