Boy, what a brutal couple of days it’s been. This is the worst streak I’ve been on by far this season so hopefully we can turn it around tonight.
The Rangers shocked the Lightning in Game 1 defeating them by a score of 6-2. Igor Shesterkin had an incredible game with a +2.45 GSAx. On the other side of the ice, Vasilevskiy struggled with a -3.52 GSAx. The Bolts had 4.45 xGoals compared to New York’s 2.48.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers (Series: NYR 1-0)
Side Line Movement
We now move onto game two where everyone will be on the Lightning. As most know, the Lightning have not lost back to back games in the playoffs over the course of the past three seasons, including this one. They are 19-0 following a loss and have moved from -125 road favorites to -130 on the moneyline. Including the first game of this series, Tampa Bay has only been a favorite on the road twice. In the first two series, Tampa Bay was an underdog on the road in every game. New York on the other hand has only been a home dog in the playoffs twice which included game one against Tampa Bay.
Total Line Movement
The total is set at 5.5, as it was in game one. Most of the wagers and money were on the under, including myself. The Rangers went over the total by themselves. We saw Vegas adjust the total in Colorado/ Edmonton after going way over in the first game but they haven’t changed the number here. In Tampa Bay’s last ten games, the total has only been set at 5.5 once, which was in game one of this series. New York on the other hand, have had their last eight games set at 5.5. Their last three games have gone over that number but the five previous games all went under the total.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Let’s take a look at Tampa Bay’s most recent sample size after a loss in the post season. They have lost four games in this seasons playoffs. Three of those losses came at the hands of the Maple Leafs in the first round and one was their most recent game against New York.
We hear a lot of talk about Vasilevskiy’s play after a loss so I’ll break it down further. He won the Conn Smythe Trophy last season leading all goalies with a +26.6 GSAx. The next closest goalie was Carey Price who had a +12.3 GSAx. In this years playoffs he has a +7.4 GSAx which ranks third to Oettinger and Shesterkin. Following the three loses Tampa Bay has suffered this year these have been Vasilevskiy’s GSAx in those games; +0.07, -0.48, and +0.04. While he is an elite goalie, he isn’t the guy we saw last year.
Instead of goaltending, let’s talk about Tampa Bay’s offensive production in those games following a loss. While the Lighting haven’t faced a goalie as good as Shesterkin, these are their expected goals in those games after a loss; 4.37, 5.01, and 3.43. In all of those games they have scored four or more goals. To add on that, every time the Bolts have scored two or less goals in the post season they have scored at least four in the following game. DraftKings currently has the Lighting team total over 2.5 at -160 and 3.5 at +155.
New York Rangers
The Rangers put up six goals in the first game which is a feat they have only accomplished before and that was in Game 7 of the last series. In Game 1, the Rangers had six skaters tally at least two points. Zibanejad continued his impressive post season with 21 total points. New York has been crucified by most insiders as a fraud due to their lack of offense but they have five players with twelve or more points in this post season.
New York has been unbelievable at home during these playoffs going 6-1. They have not lost a game at MSG since Game 1 of the first round against Pittsburgh. Since that loss they are outscoring opponents 32-14 on home ice including the first game of this series. In all of those games they have scored four or more goals besides one outlier.
I know I’ve talked a lot about Igor Shesterkin but, lets dive deeper into his stats in home. In this years playoffs, the Rangers have played eight games at home. In everyone of those games, Shesterkin has had a positive goals saved above expected (GSAx). Out of those eight games, the Rangers have never allowed more than three goals against.
DraftKings has moved the line from 29.5 saves to 30.5, slightly juiced to the over. I’ll exclude game one of the first series due to triple overtime but in those other seven games, he has gone over that number in five of seven. In the two games that he went under that number, he finished with 29 and 30 saves. In the three loses, prior to game one of this series, Tampa Bay averaged 30.67 Shots on Goal.
So this is where the math gets complicated, if the Lightning average that number after a loss and the Rangers have only allowed three or fewer goals at home since the first game of the opening round, it looks to be an opportunity to take the under for Shesterkin saves. However, we saw Tampa Bay record 39 Shots on Goal in the first game of this series with Igor recording 37 saves. Based on everything I’ve seen from Tampa Bay in these past few post seasons, they’re going to throw everything they have at Shesterkin today to avoid going down 2-0, something they haven’t done in the past three playoffs.
Player Prop Breakdown
Artemi Panarin 0.5 points (-165/ +130)
Panarin seems to love playing against the Tampa Bay Lighting. He recorded at least one point against Tampa Bay in both regular season matchups. Also, in the first game of this series he recorded two points. Out of the eight home games the Rangers have had in the playoffs, Artemi Panarin has recorded at least one point in six of those games. Panarin has gone over 0.5 points in four of the past five games.
Adam Fox 0.5 points (-155/ +120)
Adam Fox has had a great post season ranking fourth in points with 20. In every home playoff game, he has recorded at least one point per game. Fox also tallied at least one point during the regular season in his two games against the Lightning. He has also recorded at least one point in each of the past five games.
Alex Killorn 1.5 Shots on Goal (-195/+150)
Alex Killorn has gone over this number is four of the last five games. The only game he didn’t go over that number was in game one of this series against New York. Killorn has also gone over this number in two of their three matchups during the regular season. Out of the entire playoffs, Killorn has only gone under this number three times out of twelve games. The only issue here is that the last time he recorded just one shot, he did so in the next game…
Mika Zibanejad 0.5 points (-165/ +130)
Mike Zibanejad currently ranks third in playoff points with 21. He has recorded at least one point in each of the past five games. If you’re looking for a larger sample size, he has tallied at least one point in seven of the past ten games. In his last five games at home, he has at least one point in each of those games. Also during the regular season, Zibanejad had at least one point in his two games against Tampa Bay.
Nikita Kucherov 0.5 Power Play Points (+110/-140)
Nikita Kucherov is the main shooter on the Tampa Bay Power Play. The Lighting’s Power Play hasn’t been as dominant as last post season but still ranks 8th converting at a percentage of 21.6%. After the Lightning’s three loses this post season, excluding last game, they have scored a Power Play goal in each of those games. In every one of those games one man has recorded at least one Power Play point, Nikita Kucherov. If you’re looking for the contrarian view, the Rangers have only allowed Power Play goals in two games at home this post season.
PICK: [1u] TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-130) – POINTSBET
I’m keeping it simple and sticking with just one play today. The Lightning continue to rebound after bad losses and I see them doing that again tonight. Given all the data I’ve broken down in the article above, I don’t trust the total.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
