NHL Playoff Preview & Picks – June 7th, 2022

June 7, 2022

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Tampa Bay looks to even up the series tonight at home. The Rangers have struggled on the road this post season going 2-6. On the other hand, the Lightning have been solid at the home going 5-1 in the playoffs. The biggest difference between the home/away splits has been the goaltending.

At home Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 1.91 GAA and .942 SV% but on the road he has a 3.03 GAA and .906%. Igor Shesterkin has also been great at home with a 2.04 GAA and .948 SV% and struggled on the road with a 3.44 GAA and .904 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers (Series: NYR 2-1)

Side Line Movement

The Lightning are currently -170 on the moneyline for tonight’s matchup. They have been favorited in every game of this series. However, they aren’t as big of a favorite as they were in Game 3.

Total Line Movement

The total for Game 4 is the same as it has been in every game of this series, 5.5. The under has also been juiced in game as well. After the over hit in Game 1 of this series but, the under has hit in back to back games.

Trends

Under is 7-1 in Tampa Bays last 8 overall
Under is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 road games
New York is 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog

Game 4 Breakdown

So far the home team has won each of the first three games. In every game of this series, the Lighting have had more expected goals. However, as I mentioned before, the reason the Rangers have won two of three is due to their goaltending.

In Game 3 we saw two Rangers suffer injuries, Ryan Strome and Barclay Goodrow. Both guys would finish the game and are expected to be good to go for tonight’s game. Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point remains out with no real time table for return but has on the ice skating.

The Lightning have been dominant at home all post season and I see that trend continuing here tonight. They have a 5-1 record at home, with four of those five wins coming in regulation. Historically home ice in the NHL playoffs hasn’t been as big of an advantage as other sports. However, with the Lightning and Rangers, home ice seems to mean everything. While the Bolts moneyline is a bit higher than I’m comfortable playing, I do think they get the win in 60 minutes.

Game Prop Breakdown

1st Period Both Teams to Score (+220/-310)

In the first two games of this series, both teams scored in the first period. However, in Game 3 neither team scored.

Both Teams to Score at Least 2 Goals (-130/+100)

This prop has hit in all three games of this series.

Player Prop Breakdown

Chris Kreider 0.5 points (-130/+100)

Chris Kreider has tallied over 0.5 points in each of his last five games. However, he’s recorded under 0.5 points in three of his last five games on the road.

Mika Zibanejad 0.5 points (-175/+135)

Chris Kreider has tallied over 0.5 points in each of his last five games. He’s also recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last five games on the road.

Adam Fox 0.5 points (-185/+150)

Chris Kreider has tallied over 0.5 points in each of his last five games. He’s also recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last five games on the road.

Filip Chytil 1.5 shots on goal (-185/+145)

Filip Chytil has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number in three of his last five games on the road.

Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+115/-145)

Alex Killorn hasn’t recorded a single point in each of his last five games. He’s also gone under this number in four of his last five games at home.

Andrei Vasilevskiy 27.5 saves (-120/-105)

Andrei Vasilevskiy has gone over this number in six of the last seven games. He’s also recorded over 27.5 saves in each of his last three games at home. The Rangers only average 28.13 shots on goal away from home but recorded 30 last game.

Victor Hedman 0.5 Plus/Minus (+130/-165)

Victor Hedman has had a positive plus/minus in every game at home this post season besides one. The Lightning have a much better goal differential at home while the Rangers have a negative goal differential on the road.

Picks