NHL Playoff Preview & Picks – June 9th, 2022

June 9, 2022

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With the Western Conference Finals all wrapped up, we only have one series remaining. I’ll break down Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals along with some game, team, and player props.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers (Series: Tied 2-2)

Side Line Movement

In the first two games of this series the Rangers were home dogs, a trend that will continue tonight. They closed at +110 in Game 1 and +115 in Game 2. We now move to Game 5 where the home team has won every game of this series and despite that, Vegas still has the Lightning as the favorite in tonight’s matchup. Currently the Rangers are hovering around +110/+115 on the moneyline.

Total Line Movement

The total for Game 5 is the same as it has been in every game of this series, 5.5. Just like those games, the under remains juiced. After the over hit in Game 1 of this series, the under has hit in every game since.

Trends

Under is 8-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 overall
Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog

Game 5 Breakdown

We head back to MSG for Game 5 of Eastern Conference Finals with the series all tied up. The Lightning were able to win both games at home to even up the series after New York took the first two games. It’s been a trend this post season, particularity in the Eastern Conference, that the home team has been dominant.

New York has been great at home this post season going 8-1. They have a +18 goal differential at MSG compared their -9 goal differential on the road. At home the Rangers average 35.56 shots for per game while only averaging 28.89 shots for away.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as big of a disparity between their home and away splits as New York does. The Lightning have gone 4-4 on the road this post season with a -4 goal differential. Despite their below average goal differential, their Power Play and Penalty Kill have been much better on the road. Tampa does average less shots for away from home but also allows less shots against.

NYR Injuries: F. Chytil (QUES- Upper Body), R. Strome (QUES- Lower Body)

TBL Injuries: B. Point (OUT- Leg), C. Perry (QUES- Undisclosed)

Game Prop Breakdown

Both Teams to Score at Least 2 Goals (-130/+100)

This prop has hit in all three of the four games this series. Game 4 was the lone game where this prop didn’t hit as the Rangers only scored one goal.

1st Period Tie no Bet (TB Lightning -130/ NY Rangers +100)

Game 1- Tie (1-1), Game 2- NYR (2-1), Game 3- Tie (0-0), Game 4- TBL (1-0)

In the Rangers series against the Hurricanes, they had led after every first period at home. Throughout the entire playoffs, the Rangers have only been losing after the first period once at home.

Team Prop Breakdown

NY Rangers team total over 2.5 (-110)

The Rangers have recorded over 2.5 goals in both their games at home against the Lightning this series. They’ve actually gone over this number in every home game in the playoffs. At home, the Rangers are averaging 4.2 goals for in the playoffs. The Lightning are averaging 3.0 goals against on the road this post season. Vasilevskiy has also been worse on the road these playoffs with a .906 SV% and 3.03 GAA.

TB Lightning team total over 2.5 (-140)

The Lightning have recorded under 2.5 goals in both their games on the road against the Rangers this series. In their previous series against the Panthers they only recorded over 2.5 goals on the road in one of their two games. On the road this post season, the Lightning averaging 2.5 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Rangers are averaging 2.22 goals against per game. Shesterkin has also been much better at home in the playoffs with a .948 SV% and 2.04 GAA.

Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)

Chris Kreider 0.5 points (-130/+105)

Kreider has recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last six games including the four games against Tampa Bay. In his last five games at home, he has tallied over 0.5 points in four of those games. He also recorded at least a point in all three regular season matchups against the Lightning.

Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+125/-160)

Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on a nine game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs.

Artemi Panarin 0.5 points (-175/+140)

Panarin has recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five games. At home, he has recorded at least one point in three of the last five games. In the lone regular season game he played against the Lightning he had two points.

Adam Fox 2.5 Shots on Goal (+150/-195)

Adam Fox has recorded under 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games. In Game 4 against Tampa Bay he failed to tally even a single shot on goal. In his last five games at home he only went over this number twice.

Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-175/+140)

Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in each of his past five games. On the road, Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his past five games. In the three regular season matchups against the Rangers, he went over that number in two of those games.

Frank Vatrano 1.5 Shots on Goal (-180/+140)

Vatrano has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his past five games. However, at home he has only gone over this number in two of the past five games.

Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy 29.5 Saves (+100/-125)

Vasilevskiy has recorded under 29.5 saves in three of the four games against the Rangers this series. In the two away games, he has 25 and 28 saves. When he only had 25 saves in Game 2, he only faced 28 shots against. At home, the Rangers have averaged 35.56 shots for per game this post season. On the road in the playoffs, the Lightning average 31.75 shots against per game.

Igor Shesterkin 32.5 Saves (-110/-115)

Shesterkin has recorded over 32.2 saves in two of the four games against the Lightning this series. In the two games he went under that number, he only faced 30 and 31 shots against. On the road this post season, the Lightning average 31.50 shots for per game. The Rangers do give up more shots against at home than away this post season averaging 42.44.

Picks