Tonight in the NHL, we’re set for a thrilling Game 1 showdown in the Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. Let’s dive into this highly anticipated matchup, exploring the excitement it promises and highlighting some intriguing player props that deserve your attention.
Series Matchup:
| Team | Series Price |
| Dallas Stars | -125 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +105 |
The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are set to face off for the ninth time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs as they meet in the Western Conference Final. Their last postseason encounter was in the 2003 conference quarterfinals, where Dallas triumphed over Edmonton in six games.
Regular Season Matchups:
During the regular season, the Stars won two of the three matchups against the Oilers.
- November 2nd, 2023: Dallas Stars 4 @ Edmonton Oilers 3
- DAL: S. Wedgewood (.939 SV%)
- EDM: S. Skinner (.852 SV%)
- February 17th, 2024: Edmonton Oilers 4 @ Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
- EDM: C. Pickard (.889 SV%)
- DAL: J. Oettinger (.833 SV%)
- April 3rd, 2024: Edmonton Oilers 0 @ Dallas Stars 5
- EDM: C. Pickard (.844 SV%)
- DAL: J. Oettinger (1.000 SV%)
Path to the Western Conference Finals:
The Edmonton Oilers defeated the Los Angeles Kings 4-1 in the first round and the Vancouver Canucks 4-3 in the second round.
The Dallas Stars defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in the first round and the Colorado Avalanche 4-2 in the second round.
Game 1 Matchup:
Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Edmonton Oilers 0 – Dallas Stars 0
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Edmonton Oilers | +110 | +110 | +1.5 (-238) | o6.0 (-112) |
| Dallas Stars | -130 | -130 | -1.5 (+195) | u6.0 (-108) |
Tonight’s matchup and the series overall will hinge on several key factors.
Special Teams:
Edmonton boasts the best special teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, leading the NHL in both power play efficiency (37.5 percent) and penalty kill success (91.4 percent). In contrast, Dallas, the least penalized team among the four remaining in the playoffs, has struggled with their penalty kill, allowing eight power-play goals on 26 opportunities (69.2 percent). However, Dallas ranks 4th in power play percentage this postseason, converting at a rate of 29.0 percent. The Stars must maintain their discipline to avoid giving the Oilers power play opportunities. Notably, during their three regular-season meetings, Edmonton managed only one power-play goal on 12 attempts against Dallas.
Edmonton’s Offensive Leaders:
Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Evan Bouchard have been fantastic for the Oilers this postseason. Draisaitl leads the playoffs with 24 points (eight goals, 16 assists); McDavid is next with 21 points (two goals, 19 assists). Bouchard isn’t too far behind either of them with 20 points (five goals, 15 assists). Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are also producing at over a point per game, though the majority of their points have come on the power play. For the Oilers to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, they’ll need players like Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane, and Warren Foegele to step up.
Dallas’ Offensive Leaders:
Miro Heiskanen leads the Stars with 13 points (five goals, eight assists) this postseason, followed by Jason Robertson with 12 points and Wyatt Johnston with 11 points. The Stars have benefitted from strong performances from their young players. Roope Hintz, who’s out for Game 1, and Joe Pavelski were amongst the leaders in points during the regular season but have struggled to produce in the postseason. If the Stars want to advance they’ll need to continue to generate scoring from their top three lines.
Goaltending:
Goaltending will be pivotal tonight. Stuart Skinner of the Oilers ranks 20th in save percentage (.881), 17th in goals against average (GAA) (2.87), and 24th in goals saved above expected (-2.2) this postseason. Jake Oettinger of the Stars ranks 7th in save percentage (.918), 7th in GAA (2.09), and 4th in goals saved above expected (+5.2). Both goalies will play critical roles in determining the outcome of the game and the series.
EDM: Stuart Skinner [CONFIRMED]
DAL: Jake Oettinger [CONFIRMED]
Sides/ Totals:
- Edmonton Oilers/ Dallas Stars over 5.5 (-140) – FanDuel
The Oilers have been impressive offensively this postseason, averaging 3.83 goals per game (GF/GP), ranking 2nd overall. However, their defense has been less effective, ranking 8th in goals against per game (GA/GP) with an average of 2.75. A significant issue for them is their goaltender, Stuart Skinner, who has struggled and is currently second to last in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) this postseason. Although Skinner has improved in the last two games, this is partly due to Edmonton adopting a more defensive strategy to limit shots. This approach worked against Vancouver, who rank last in shots per game (Shots/GP), but it’s unlikely to be as effective against Dallas, who rank 7th in Shots/GP this postseason. Dallas is well-positioned to exploit Edmonton’s weak goaltending and should score at least 2-3 goals tonight. Meanwhile, the Oilers’ potent offense will face a stiffer challenge in Jake Oettinger. Oettinger, who left practice early on Wednesday due to an illness, will start tonight. If he’s not at 100%, this could lead to a higher-scoring game overall.
Player Props:
- Evan Bouchard over 2.5 Shots on Goal (60 Min) (-132) – FanDuel
Evan Bouchard has been one of the focal points of Edmonton’s offense, with 20 points this postseason. Additionally, Bouchard is a key player on Edmonton’s first power play unit, which is likely to have several opportunities in tonight’s game.
Bouchard has consistently met his shots-on-goal quota in six of his last ten games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.3 Shots on Goal and 7.8 Shot Attempts.
Additionally, Bouchard boasts an impressive track record against Dallas, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in six of their last nine encounters.
On the road this season, Bouchard was much better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 52.5% of the games compared to just 43.9% at home.
Dallas currently ranks 7th in the postseason for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 27.50 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Stars have conceded an average of 9.5 shots on goal per game to defensemen this postseason.
Linemate and Shot Propz provide all Player Prop Data.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged
