NHL Preview & Picks – April 17th, 2023 (Bonus 1st Round Series Futures)

We had a fantastic NHL regular season gaining 31.08 Units (7.9 ROI %).

The NHL Playoffs are here! We have the first four games taking place tonight. I’ll break down each matchup along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• New York Islanders: 42-31-9, (17-18-6 Away)
• Carolina Hurricanes: 52-21-9, (28-10-3 Home)

The Islanders made a late-season push to secure themselves the first wild card spot in the playoffs. They missed the postseason last year but do have a veteran core that will rely on their experience from their 2020 and 2021 playoff runs. New York will also get a key piece back tonight in Matthew Barzal who’s been out for the last 23 games.

Carolina has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs since 2019. They had a great season recording the second-most wins. They’ll be without one of their key players in Andrei Svechnikov who had to undergo knee surgery.

Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Florida Panthers: 42-32-8, (19-19-3 Away)
• Boston Bruins: 65-12-5, (34-4-3 Home)

After making some pre-season trades that shook up their roster, the Panthers were able to secure the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They do have a roster that can compete with this Boston roster as seen in the regular season handing the Bruins two of their seventeen losses. They’ll be relying on Alex Lyon in net who is set to make his first postseason start tonight.

The Bruins put together arguably the greatest regular season in NHL history. They set the all-time win record with 65 topping the previous record of 62 set by the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings.

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

• Time: 9:30 PM ET
• Minnesota Wild: 46-25-11, (21-13-7 Away)
• Dallas Stars: 47-21-14, (22-10-9 Home)

Minnesota has now made the playoffs for the fourth straight season. However, they haven’t advanced to the second round since 2015. Kirill Kaprizov recently returned to the Wild’s lineup after missing over a month due to a lower-body injury. Even with missing that much time, he was still their leading scorer.

The Dallas Stars have made the postseason in each of their last two seasons. Last year, they were eliminated in the first round by the Calgary Flames. Before that, they advanced to the Stanley Cup in 2020 falling to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Their new head coach Peter Deboer has had plenty of success with teams in his first year so the Stars will be hoping for a deep playoff run this year.

Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• Los Angeles Kings: 47-25-10, (21-14-6 Away)
• Edmonton Oilers: 50-23-5-4, (23-12-3 Home)

These teams will match up in the first round for the second consecutive season. Last year, the Oilers came back from down 3-2. That would spark Edmonton’s run to the Western Conference Finals where they would eventually lose to the Stanley Cup Champions, the Colorado Avalance.

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

• New York Islanders/ Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 (-130) – DraftKings

Both of these teams have been solid defensively ranking in the top 5 in terms of goals against per game. The Islanders are anchored by Ilya Sorokin on the backend who’s one of the best goaltenders in the NHL ranking 3rd in GSAx (+38.7). The Islanders and Hurricanes both like to play a defensive style of hockey limiting the other team’s chances. Carolina allowed the fewest High Danger Shots Against this year with just 118. While I expect the Hurricanes to control this game, I believe the Islanders are a team that can withstand the pressure. As I mentioned before, Carolina doesn’t get up many chances so I expect the Islanders to be limited offensively tonight. In their last matchup this year, New York was held to just 22 shots on goal.

• Boston Bruins in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings

For the Bruins coming off a historic season, the expectations are sky-high. Anything less than winning the Cup will be considered a failure of a season. They’ll face a Florida team that has given them some trouble this year but as we saw during the regular season, the Bruins elevate their game at home. The last thing they want to do is drop the first game of this series and give Florida even the slightest of hope. I fully expect the Bruins to put forward their best effort tonight and control this game.

Player Props to Target:

• Tyler Bertuzzi over 0.5 Points (-108) – FanDuel
  • Tyler Bertuzzi has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in three of his last four. In his five previous matchups against the Panthers, Bertuzzi has recorded over 0.5 points three times. He’s playing on the second line with Krejci and Pastrnak tonight so he should get plenty of ice time. Bertuzzi is also on the second Power Play for Boston which should have multiple opportunities as Florida’s taken three or more penalties in five of their last six games.

• Evander Kane over 0.5 Points (-124) – FanDuel
  • Evander Kane had a difficult season suffering a gruesome wrist injury earlier in the season. He’s struggled as of late only recording one point in his last five games. However, he seems to enjoy playing at home more, recording a point in each of his last three games at Rogers Place. Kane’s currently on the second line with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. In addition to that, he’s also on Edmonton’s second Power Play unit. Last year in the playoffs, he was great with 17 points in 15 games played.

• David Pastrnak over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-133) – Caesars
  • David Pastrnak has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.6 shots on goal and 10.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 4.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Panthers rank 22nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.74. On the road, that number drops slightly to 30.41. Florida has also given up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers in their last ten games. In his previous matchup against the Panthers, Pastrnak had seven shots on goal on twelve shot attempts.

1st Round Series Futures:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

• Boston Bruins -2.5 Games (+155) – DraftKings
• Dallas Stars -1.5 Games (+130) – DraftKings

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.