NHL Preview & Picks – April 18th, 2023

We had a fantastic NHL regular season gaining 31.08 Units (7.9 ROI %). Last night, we started the playoffs off strong going 2-0 (+2.00 Units).

There are four games taking place tonight. I’ll break down each matchup along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• New York Rangers: 47-22-13, (24-9-8 Away)
• New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, (24-13-4 Home)

The Rangers and Devils will face off in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. New York reached the Eastern Conference finals last season while the Devils will be making their first postseason appearance since 2018. New Jersey had a drastic turnaround this season recording 112 points from last year when they just had 49. Both of these teams made some trade deadline acquisitions in hope of a deep playoff run. For New York, it feels as though this is their window to compete for a Cup while New Jersey’s window has just opened.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Tampa Bay Lightning: 46-30-6, (18-22-1 Away)
• Toronto Maple Leafs: 50-21-11, (27-8-6 Home)

These two teams will meet again in the first round again after the Tampa Bay Lightning knocked the Leafs out of the playoffs last season. The Lightning will hope to make it to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning it in two of their three appearances. Toronto on the other hand has lost in the first round of the playoffs in each of their past six seasons. They made some trade deadline acquisitions that they hope will propel them past the first round. In the regular season, the Leafs earned five of a possible six points against Tampa Bay but as we all know, things can change in the playoffs.

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Time: 9:30 PM ET
• Winnipeg Jets: 46-33-3, (20-20-1 Away)
• Vegas Golden Knights: 51-22-9, (25-15-1 Home)

The Vegas Golden Knights missed the playoffs for the first time last year after reaching the postseason in each of their first four seasons in the league. That didn’t sit well with the front office as they replaced head coach Peter DeBoer with Bruce Cassidy. Winnipeg started the season off strong but struggled in the second half going 13-14-2 to end the year. They didn’t secure their playoff spot until the penultimate game of their season. If the Jets want to make a deep playoff run they’ll need to rely on goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• Seattle Kraken: 46-28-8, (26-11-4 Away)
• Colorado Avalanche: 51-24-7, (22-13-6 Home)

The Seattle Kraken have made the playoffs for the first time since joining the NHL as an expansion team last season. Last season they finished last in the Pacific Division but with some off-season acquisitions, they were able to put together a roster that can compete. This was the largest jump between a first and second season in NHL history. They’ll face off against the Colorado Avalanche who will begin their Stanley Cup title defense. Colorado has lost several players from that roster but still kept their core intact. However, this team has battled injuries all season and will be without their captain Gabriel Landeskog.

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

• Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (+110) – DraftKings

I think we see an inspired effort from the Toronto Maple Leafs here in Game 1. They’ll be hungry for revenge against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. Keep in mind, in Game 1 of that series the Leafs dominated winning 5-0. Toronto ended the season strong with four wins to close out their season so they have some momentum heading into the playoffs. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has lost four of their last five games. To be fair, they did rest a lot of key players including their star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Historically, Vasilevskiy has struggled against the Leafs allowing three or more goals in his last five matchups against them. While Tampa Bay has continually proven themselves in the playoffs, I think the Leafs take Game 1 as they need to try and close this series out as soon as possible. If they let Tampa Bay hang around and this series starts to go to 6-7 games, I think the momentum switches to the Lightning.

• Winnipeg Jets / Vegas Golden Knights Under 5.5 (-105) – BetMGM

The Winnipeg Jets are a solid defensive team ranking 9th in Goals Against per 60 (GAA). They’ve also allowed the 7th fewest High Danger Shots Against. Connor Hellebuyck anchors them in net ranking 4th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). In their last ten games of the regular season, they allowed an average of just 2.20 Goals Against. The Golden Knights have been better defensively as well with a 2.60 GAA in their last ten games. While they are without their starting goaltender in Logan Thompson, the expected starter of Laurent Brossoit has been fantastic in his last few starts. In his eleven starts this season he has a +5.9 GSAx which ranks 24th. He has only allowed multiple goals twice in his last five starts. While I expect Vegas to control this game, I believe Winnipeg has the defensive capability to withstand those pushes and limit Vegas’ chances. For the limited chances that Winnipeg may get, Brossoit has proven that he’s a capable netminder. I’m thinking this is a similar game to the Islanders/ Hurricanes matchup that we saw last night.

Player Props to Target:

• Mika Zibanejad over 0.5 Points (-165) – DraftKings
  • Mika Zibanejad has gone over this number in each of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Devils, Zibanejad has recorded over 0.5 points each time.

• Nico Hischier over 0.5 Points (-185) – DraftKings
  • Nico Hischier has gone over this number in four of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Rangers, Hischier has recorded over 0.5 points each time.

• Alex Killorn over 0.5 Points (-118) – FanDuel
  • Alex Killorn has gone over this number in four of his last five games. On the road, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his three previous matchups against the Maple Leafs, Killorn has recorded over 0.5 points twice.

• Jack Eichel over 0.5 Points (-175) – DraftKings
  • Jack Eichel has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four. In his two previous matchups against the Jets, Eichel has recorded over 0.5 points each time.

• Artturi Lehkonen over 0.5 Points (-138) – FanDuel
  • Artturi Lehkonen has gone over this number in three of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Kraken, Lehkonen has recorded over 0.5 points three times.

• William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+102) – FanDuel
  • William Nylander has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 8.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in three of his last five. The Lightning rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.49. On the road, that number increases slightly to 32.51. Tampa Bay has also given up the 13th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his four previous matchups against the Lightning, Nylander has gone over this number each time.

• Jonathan Marchessault over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
  • Jonathan Marchessault has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five. The Jets rank 10th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.33. On the road, that number increases slightly to 30.71. Winnipeg has also given up the 14th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season. In his three previous matchups against the Jets, Marchessault has gone over this number each time.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.