NHL Preview & Picks – April 1st, 2022

March 31, 2022

709

I breakdown the interstate rivalry between the Islanders and the Rangers and offer a few more picks on the night.

New York Islanders @ New York Rangers

Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
New York Islanders: 30-27-9, 6th Metropolitan (12-14-5 Away)
New York Rangers: 44-19-5, 2nd Metropolitan (22-6-3 Home)

Team	Opening ML	Current ML	Spread	Total
New York Islanders	+118	+145	+1.5 (-170)	o5.5 (-110)
New York Rangers	-142	-175	-1.5 (+150)	u5.5 (-110)

Trends:

Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
Over is 9-3 in Islanders last 12 road games.

Previous Matchups:

November 24, 2021
- NYR (4) @ NYI (1)
- NYR -135, NYI +115, O/U 5.5 (+105/-125)
March 17, 2022
- NYI (2) @ NYR (1)
- NYI +115, NYR -140, O/U 5.5 (+105/-125)

Preview:

New York Islanders

The Islanders have been playing some decent hockey as of late going 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. However, it doesn’t mean much as they’re out of playoff contention. They’re currently 15 points behind the Washington Capitals for the second Wild Card spot.

Offensively, the Islanders have struggled ranking 24th on the year averaging 2.72 Goals For per game. Just like their record, their offense has been better recently averaging 3.00 Goals For per game. New York has struggled to generate offensive opportunities all season and have been generating even less chances in their last 10. Even when they do create scoring chances, they’re aren’t great at capitalizing on them as their Shooting % ranks 21st. One bright spot for the Islanders has been their Powerplay which is converting at a higher rate than their season average.

Brock Nelson leads the team in points with 48 in 56 games played followed up by Matt Barzal who was 44 in 56 and Anders Lee who was 40 in 59. Nelson has been the hot hand and is currently on a six game point streak generating 5 goals and 5 assists during that stretch. Barzal is also on a little point streak himself averaging two points per game in his last two.

The Islanders have been solid defensively all season averaging 2.69 Goals Against per game, ranking 5th. They’ve been slightly below that number in their last 10 averaging 2.60. Despite them ranking well in terms of Goals Against, they do give up a ton of shots on goal and have been worse in their last 10 games. One matchup to watch out for tonight is the Islanders Penalty Kill vs the Rangers Power Play. Both of these teams rank very highly in those respective categories so it should be fun to watch.

Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start but, he is questionable with an upper body injury so we’ll see if he gets the nod. He ranks 14th in the NHL in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +9.0. If he is unable to go, Semyon Varlamov will get the start in net. He’s struggled this year with a -1.1 GSAx but, has allowed three goals or less in his last three starts. Varlamov did start against the Rangers in their earlier matchup this season where he allowed 4 goals on 21 Shots which is awful.

New York Rangers

The New York Rangers are red hot right now going 8-2 in their last 10 games. They’re currently on a four game winning streak defeating Buffalo, Detroit, and Pittsburgh twice during that stretch. As it stands now, the Rangers are in 2nd place of the Metropolitan division and five points behind the first place Carolina Hurricanes.

Overall, the Rangers have been sub-par offensively ranking 17th in Goals For per game with an average of 3.04. However, they’ve averaged 3.80 Goals For per game in their last 10 led by their top line of Kreider- Zibanejad – Vatrano. Chris Kreider and Frank Vatrano have been especially good as of late along with their leading goal scorer Artemi Panarin. New York’s been able to generate more shots on goal which has led to increased scoring chances. The Rangers have been great at capitalizing on those chances with a Shooting % ranking 7th. That percentage has gone up 3% in their last 10 so with the additional chances, there’s no wonder why they’ve been able to generate more offensive production. I mentioned this before but, New York’s Power Play has been one of the best in the NHL ranking 5th and just like all of their other offensive metrics, has been better as of late.

While the Rangers have found a spark up front, their defense has struggled a bit. In their last 10 they’re averaging 0.21 more goals against which isn’t all that significant but, still noteworthy. Surprisingly, they’ve done a better job of limiting shots on goal which hasn’t had a direct correlation to their goals against. Their Penalty Kill ranks 13th in the NHL although it’s has been significantly worse in their last 10, 14% worse to be specific.

Igor Shesterkin is expected to get the start for the Rangers tonight. He’s been the best goalie in the NHL by far this season and without him this team wouldn’t be where they are in terms of the standings. He ranks 1st in GSAx with an astounding +32.4. Shesterkin has started both games for the Rangers against the Islanders this season.

Pick:

NEW YORK RANGERS IN REGULATION (-110) – DraftKings
- When looking at home and away splits, the Rangers are a significantly better team at home. Combine that with the fact that they’ll have Shesterkin in net tonight, I like them a lot here. The Islanders are also one of those teams that’s much better at home. They’re 18-13-4 at home this season compared to 12-14-5 away. Given how well the Rangers have played as of late they should win this one at MSG in regulation.

Other Picks on the Night:

All of these totals will move by the morning so I would suggest playing them now. I know it is a lot of picks but based of the preliminary line movement, NSH/BUF and OTT/DET will likely move to 6.5. EDM/ STL may move to 7 but, I expect it to close around -125/-130 for 6.5.