NHL Preview & Picks – December 3, 2021

The NHL only has 5 games going tonight with really only two exciting matchups. The first one is the San Jose Sharks vs the New York Rangers and the second being the Calgary Flames vs the Anaheim Ducks.

I breakdown the Calgary and Anaheim matchup and give several other picks so check it out!

Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Calgary Flames: 14-4-5, 1st Pacific (10-2-2 Away)
• Anaheim Ducks: 13-8-3, 3rd Pacific (9-4-1 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary’s last 10 games.
• Calgary are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim’s last 5 games.
• Anaheim are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games.

Preview:

These teams will face off for a second time this season with Anaheim beating Calgary 3-2 in OT back on October 18th. However, Calgary did win the xGoal battle in that game 3.35 to 1.98. The difference maker was Gibson having a +1.35 GSAx, while Markstom had a -1.02 GSAx.

Calgary Flames

The Calgary Flames come into this game on 4 game win streak on the road. They beat the Los Angeles Kings on the road last night 3-2 which puts them in a tough spot tonight playing a good Anaheim team on no rest. That being said, Calgary has a 2-0-1 record on no days rest. The Flames have also been great on the road this year with a 10-2-2 record.

Offensively, the Flames have one of the best xGoal % with a 55.57%. Anything above 50% is good for reference when talking about xGoal %. Although Calgary has a good xGoal %, they have a -2.38 Goals For Above Expected which isn’t that great. This number correlates to their Shooting % (19th). What this means is that the Flames are failing to capitalize on scoring chances lower than expected. Calgary is averaging 2.44 Goals For Per 60 (12th) and 34.5 Shots on Goal per Game (5th). In their last four road games, which they’ve won all of them, they’re averaging 4.25 goals per game. Johnny Gaudreau leads the team in points with 25 through 22 games.

The Flames have also been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL to start the season giving up an average of 1.32 Goals Against Per 60 (1st). They also have the best Goals Against Above Expected in the League with a -14.87. Their Penalty Kill ranks 5th with a success rate of 87%. Jacob Markstrom started last night and has been confirmed as the starter tonight. He has been one of the best goalies this year with a +11.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks enter tonight’s game on a two game win streak, defeating the Kings 5-4 on Tuesday, and the Golden Knights 6-5 on Wednesday. The Ducks have had a surprising start to the season in what was supposed to be a down year for them. They rattled off an 8 game win streak in early November but, have regressed a bit since then, as expected.

The Ducks have been solid at home this year with a 9-4-1 record. Anaheim has a xGoals % of 51.07% with a +1.66 Goals For Above Expected. They’re currently averaging 2.4 Goals For Per 60. Surprisingly, their Power Play has been one of their strong points this year ranking 3rd, after finishing dead last in PP% last year. Troy Terry leads the team with 25 points through 23 games. Ryan Getzlaf is questionable tonight which could hurt them as he has the second most points on the team. If he’s not able to go this will be a significant loss.

Anaheim has done a great job defensively of limiting opponents scoring chances only allowing 28 High Danger Shots Against. Although, they do have a +3.6 Goals Against Above Expected which isn’t great. The Ducks are allowing an average of 2.4 Goals Against Per 60 which is middle of the road. John Gibson is expected to start tonight for Anaheim but, has not been confirmed. Gibson has a -3.3 GSAx through his 18 starts.

Pick:

This is an interesting game given the spots both teams are in. Calgary has been great on the road but is playing on back to back nights. However, the Flames do have their ace in net tonight which gives them an advantage in terms of goalies. Anaheim has been great at home but, has been giving up a lot of goals lately. It should be a tight game like the first matchup between these two teams but, I think Calgary can pull this one out.

PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (-125)

Other plays for tonight:

• EDMONTON OILERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (+110)
• FANDUEL ONLY – EDMONTON OILERS & OVER 5.5 (+220)

The Oilers have one of the best, if not the best offensive in the NHL. They average 2.68 Goals For Per 60 and face the Kraken with the worst Goals Against Per 60, 3.14. Also the first matchup between these two teams has 7 goals and I’m expecting a similar outcome tonight.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.