Since returning from the Christmas/ COVID break the NHL has been absolutely wild. Some teams have played multiple games, while others are still looking to play their first.
Several teams continue to be postponed due to outbreaks while others have a green light. Like most other sports currently, the NHL is a mess and continues to fail to provide a reasonable solution to the problem.
While most teams/ players/ coaches are affected by this first hand, NHL gamblers are also suffering not knowing the lineups for the night. It’s incredibly hard to place bets early thinking you have value only to find out a team has called up their third string goalie to make his NHL debut.
However, just like the NHL, we roll on and look to find winners. We have a great game this afternoon between the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights as they battle it out for 1st Place in the Pacific Division.
Anaheim looks for revenge on the Golden Knights as Vegas has bested by them in both of their matchups this season.
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Anaheim Ducks: 17-9-7, 2nd Pacific (7-5-3 Away)
- Vegas Golden Knights: 21-12-0, 1st Pacific (10-7-0 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Anaheim Ducks | +152 | +155 | +1.5 (-150) | o6.0 (-105) |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -169 | -195 | -1.5 (+130) | u6.0 (-115) |
Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Anaheim’s last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas’ last 5 games.
- Vegas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
Preview:
Vegas line makers, like us, are also affected by the unpredictability of lineups. This game and particular highlights that. I’ve seen several books list the Total at 6 (-105/-115) while others have it listed at 6 (+105/-125).
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks returned to action on Wednesday night losing 2-1 to the Vancouver Canucks in OT. Anaheim held their own against a red hot Vancouver team that rattled off their 7th win in a row under new head coach Bruce Boudreau.
Anaheim averages 2.17 Goals For Per 60 on offense with a -3.29 Goals For Above Expected. They haven’t been great up front and the loss of Trevor Zegras will certainly not help as he’s still in quarantine. One bright spot of Anaheim’s offense has been their ability to capitalize on the man advantage which ranks 5th. The Ducks will also be without one of their main forwards Cam Fowler, who was injured in their last game.
Defensively, the Ducks are slightly above the league average with a 2.28 Goals Against Per 60. They have a 0.36 Goals Against Above Expected differential which again, ranks slightly above the league average.
Given the day of rest they had, it’s likely that John Gibson will start in net. Gibson has a -2.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) on the year. Despite the low GSAx, he has been better as of late with the only outlier coming in the game vs Arizona. Giving up 6 goals to Arizona is always slightly concerning as they are the worst team in the league but maybe it was an off night.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas returned to the ice on Tuesday defeating the Los Angeles Kings 6-3. The Golden Knights jumped out to an early lead and never looked back.
This team has been red hot as of late winning their last 6 of 7 games. Their only loss came at the hands of the back to back Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. During this seven game stretch they have outscored opponents 31-20.
The Golden Knights have one of the best Goals For Per 60 averaging 3.04. However, Vegas will be without two of their top forwards tonight, Max Pacioretty and Marc Stone. The Golden Knights lead the league with 81 goals on the season behind Chandler Stephenson and Riley Smith. Given the amount of goals Vegas has scored, they also have one of the league best Goals For Above Expected with a 8.28.
On the back end of things, Vegas hasn’t been as great as their offense. They have relied on the guys up front to handle the majority of the work. That being said, the Golden Knights do have a -5.3 Goals Against Above Expected, which is solid. They’re also only averaging 2.4 Goals Against Per 60. Good news for Vegas is that they will likely get Alex Pietrangelo back who is coming off the COVID protocol list.
When they get Jack Eichel, Max Pacioretty, Marc Stone back they will be a Stanley Cup contender. They’re also currently without starting goaltender Robin Lehner who is day to day with a lower body injury. The Golden Knights are currently listed at +800 to win the Stanley Cup only behind the Colorado Avalanche (+550).
Speaking of Robin Lehner, he may return tonight but has not been confirmed. Personally, I doubt it. Laurent Brossolt has been starting in his place and will most likely get the nod. He has a +0.6 GSAx on the season but has allowed 3 or more goals in his last two starts.
Picks:
- UNDER 6.0 (-115)
- In the previous two meetings between these teams, the total has gone way over in both games. However, they both have completely different lineups tonight. Both teams are without several of their top scorers. Anaheim is good enough defensively to withstand the attack from the Golden Knights forwards. Offensively, the Ducks lack the fire power to generate as many chances as they had previously. While Vegas does have the ability to put up goals, Gibson also has the ability to stop them. Given Brossoit’s struggles this season, it is an issue but, he did look better in his last outing posting a +0.37 GSAx.
- Believe me, I understand that coming off break most games have been going over but from all of my analysis I think this one stays under.
Other Plays for Tonight:
- WASHINGTON/ DETROIT OVER 5.5 (-115)
- When looking at this game, I certainly expected the Total to be listed at 6, which makes me slightly nervous. The Caps are coming off a 5-3 victory over Nashville on Wednesday, while the Red Wings return to the ice for the first time after break. Washington has the ability to score especially against a struggling Detroit defense. One positive for the Red Wings offensively is that they do average more goals at home.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
