Only four games going tonight in the NHL tonight with some below average matchups. I’ll breakdown the Isles vs the Oilers and may a few other picks on the night. Let’s get into it!
New York Islanders @ Edmonton Oilers
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN +
- New York Islanders: 17-17-6, 6th Metropolitan (8-7-3 Away)
- Edmonton Oilers: 23-18-3, 5th Pacific (12-10-0 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| New York Islanders | +115 | +140 | +1.5 (-170) | o5.5 (-120) |
| Edmonton Oilers | -138 | -160 | -1.5 (+150) | u5.5 (+100) |
Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Islanders’ last 14 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders’ last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 7 games.
- Under is 4-1 in Oilers last 5 home games.
Preview:
These teams faced off last month where the New York Islanders defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-2 in Overtime. New York was a slight favorite in that game with the total being said at 6.0.
New York Islanders
The New York Islanders returned from the All-Star break on Wednesday with a 6-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks on the road. They’re in the middle of the four game road trip where they’ll take on the Oilers tonight and face Calgary on Saturday and Buffalo on Tuesday. The Islanders have played the least games of any NHL team this year (40), so they’ll need to get hot quick if they want to make a post season push.
The Long Island Islanders are one of the worst teams offensively averaging 2.45 Goals For on the season. In their last 10 games, they’ve been much better averaging 3.10. Surprisingly, they average more Goals For on the road with 2.61. In terms of Shots For, they rank 29th with an average of 28.7 per game along with a Shooting % of 8.5 which is 24th. The Islanders have a -5.7 Goals For Above Expected which is 12th worst. Their Power Play ranks 23rd with a 17.5 conversion percentage. In their last 10, their Power Play has struggled so I would avoid looking at any Power Play point player props.
Kyle Palmieri will be out tonight for the Islanders as he has tested positive for COVID-19.
Defensively, New York has been much better ranking 5th in Goals Against giving up an average of 2.63 per game. They have a -5.0 Goals Against Above Expected on the year. New York ranks 14th in terms of Shots on Goal Against with an average of 31.0 but, rank much better in terms of High Danger Shots against. Their Penalty Kill has been great ranking 8th and has only allowed two Power Play goals against them in their last 10.
Ilya Sorokin will get the start in net for the Islanders tonight who has a 14-8-5 record on the year with a 2.33 GAA. He has a +5.7 GSAx on the season but has allowed 3 or more goals in his last four starts.
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton will play their third game in four games since the All-Star break. They’ve lost both of their games following the break to Vegas (4-0) and Chicago (4-1). Dave Tippett has been fired as their head coach, so Jay Woodrich will make his debut behind the bench tonight. Woodcroft spent the past 3.5 seasons as head coach of the Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton’s AHL team) and will come to Edmonton with assistant Dave Manson.
The Oilers rank 12th in terms of Goals For averaging 3.18 but have only averaged 2.90 in his last 10. Edmonton does rank 9th in terms of Shots on Goals For but does have a -5.7 Goals For Above Expected as their shooting % isn’t strong. Their Power Play remains solid on the year ranking 3rd. That being said, in the Oilers last 10 games their Power Play has been sub-par.
They’ll be without Zack Kassian who’s on IR with a jaw injury. He’s expected to make his return in early April.
Unlike the Isles, Edmonton has been horrible defensively averaging 3.32 Goals Against per game ranking 23rd. In their last 10, they have been even worse giving up an average of 3.50 Goals Against per game. They rank 22nd in Shots Allowed per game with an average of 32.2. Their Penalty Kill has also struggled recently with a rate of 76.7% which ranks 23rd. The Oilers also have one of the worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +8.39.
Mike Smith will get the start in net for Edmonton tonight as Mikko Koskinen remains in COVID protocols. Smith has a -5.4 Goals Saved Above Expected on the season is his 8 games played. He has not been great at all this season, especially as of late which makes me wonder why this total is only set at 5.5.
Pick:
- EDMONTON OILERS/ NEW YORK ISLANDERS OVER 5.5 (-120)
- Both goalies have struggled as of late and while neither teams offensive has been great, Edmonton should have a spark with their new head coach tonight. I fully expect the total to move to 6.0 closer to puck drop so I want to lock this in over night at 5.5.
Other Plays on the Night:
- TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING IN REGULATION (-180)
- Listen, I know this is juicy and I usually hate to lay these numbers but Tampa Bay is one of those teams that rebounds well especially after a loss. While -180 is a bit more than I’d like to lay here, I expected this number to jump to around -200 before puck drop. The Lightning are 4-0-1 on no days rest and 3-0-1 after a loss on no days rest. Elliot will likely get the start which concerns me a bit but Tampa should get it done on the road here.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
