Following up a small four game slate of games on Wednesday, we have 10 games going tonight in the NHL. There’s a few solid matchups tonight and also some not so exciting games. I’ll breakdown one of the better games between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs and offer a few other picks for tonight. Let’s get into it!
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 31-11-8, 1st Metropolitan (17-5-3 Away)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 31-12-3, 3rd Atlantic (17-4-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +175 | +130 | +1.5 (-190) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +120 | -150 | -1.5 (+160) | u6.5 (-115) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games.
- Toronto are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
Previous Matchups:
- October 23, 2021: Toronto 1 @ Pittsburgh 7
- PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 6.0 (+100/-120)
- November 20, 2021: Pittsburgh 2 @ Toronto 0
- PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
Preview:
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins limped into the All-Star break losing four games in a row but have returned from the break red hot winning four straight. They most recently defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in OT on Tuesday with Sidney Crosby scoring his 500th career goal in that matchup. They’ll take on the Maple Leafs tonight before returning home to take on the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh ranks 9th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.34 but, in their last 10 are only averaging 3.20. However, since returning from break they’re averaging 3.75 goals for per game. Despite the slight down tick in goals in their last 10, they’ve been averaging more shots for in their last 10 (34.70) compared to their season average of 34.60. Their Power Play ranks 11th converting at a rate of 22.1% but have been much better as of late. In their last 10 games, Pittsburgh Power Play is converting at a rate of 30.43%.
If you’re looking to target player props for tonight I would start with Pittsburgh’s leading scorer, Jake Guentzel. He’s recorded at least a point in his last 10 games, totaling 5 goals and 9 assists. Crosby has also been on a hot streak as of late recording at least a point in his last 7 games totaling 3 goals and 9 assists. Other players for Pittsburgh who you can look to target for player props are Kris Letang and Bryan Rust.
Defensively, the Penguins are tied for third in allowing the least goals against per game averaging 2.54. In their last 10, they’ve been slightly better averaging 2.50. During their four game winning streak, they’ve been much better with an average of 2.00 goals against per game. They rank 9th in terms of shots on goal against averaging 30.2 per game but, have been averaging two shots fewer in their last 10. The Penguins Penalty Kill ranks 2nd in the NHL with a rate of 87.7% and have only allowed one goal on the man advantage in their last four (10 attempts).
All-Star Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start to the Penguins tonight. He has a +15.6 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year in his 39 games played. In Jarry’s last five starts he’s allowed 2-2-3-4-4 goals against. He’s started both games against Toronto and has only allowed one goal against in those matchups.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs return from a three game road trip where they lost twice (Calgary, Vancouver) and won once. Their most recent game was that win, where they defeated Seattle 6-2. They return home tonight after a day off to take on a surging Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that’s beaten them in both of their previous matchups. Toronto currently sits in third place in the Atlantic division but will need to step it up if they look to keep pace with Florida and Tampa Bay.
Offensively, Toronto ranks 4th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.59. In their last 10, the offense has come alive averaging 4.30 goals for per game. They’ve been averaging more shots on goal as of late which has provided them with some much needed additional scoring chances as they don’t have the best shooting %. Obviously ranking 10th in Shooting % isn’t awful, but this team needs to continually put up goals if they want to have a shot in games. Toronto’s Power Play ranks 1st in the NHL and will face a great PK tonight, which should make for an exciting matchup.
In terms of player props for Toronto, again, start with their leading scorer Austin Matthews. He’s on a nine game point streak tallying 8 goals and 10 assists during that stretch. William Nylander and John Tavares are both on four game point streaks as well. However, a guy I like is Mitch Marner. He struggled during the beginning portion of the season but, has really turned it on as of late so look out for him tonight.
In terms of defense, the Maple Leafs rank 6th in goals allowed with an average of 2.70. In their last 10 games, they’ve been much worse averaging 3.20 goals against. Oddly enough, they’ve been averaging fewer shots against in those games, as compared to their season average. Their Penalty Kill ranks 6th with a success rate of 83.8%. However, in their last 10, that percentage has dropped to 69.57%. Both of these teams are extremely disciplined so I don’t expect to see many special teams chances. That being said, in their two pervious matchups there’s been a total of 13 Power Plays combined but, only one of those was converted upon. So definitely stay away from Power Play points props in this game.
Jack Campbell who was also an All-Star, is expected to get the start in net for the Maple Leafs. He started the season great but, has regressed a bit. Even with that regression, he still has a +8.8 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year. He also started in both those losses to the Penguins early in the year where he allowed 5 and 2 goals against. In the first matchup he was actually pulled but, faired much better in the second.
Pick:
- TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS OVER 6.0 (-125) – PointsBet
- I’m going to take this line now, as all of the other books have moved this line to 6.5. This is mainly based on getting some CLV for this game and allow us a chance to push if we need it. Looking at this game, it’s extremely tough to cap as Pittsburgh has been surging lately but, on the other hand you rarely see a team lose three straight matchups to an opponent. This will be last time these teams meet this year so I’m very tempted to take Toronto, instead I’m going to opt for some CLV and take the total now.
Other Plays on the Night:
- WASHINGTON CAPITALS/ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 1P OVER 1.5 (-135) – DK
- In Last 10, WSH 1.00 GF/ 0.90 GA and PHI 0.90 GF/ 1.40 GA in the 1P. Martin Jones expected to get his first start since January 25. He hasn’t been great at all this season allowing 4-4-3-3 in his last four starts.
- NEW YORK RANGERS/ DETROIT RED WINGS 1P OVER 1.5 (-140) – DK
- In Last 10, NYR 1.00 GF/ 1.20 GA and DET 1.00 GF/ 1.00 GA in the 1P. DET struggles in the 1P on the road while NYR are solid at home in the 1P. Nedeljkovic has struggled as of late so I think the NYR can get two themselves early here. I would also look at NYR 1P -0.5 (+135) if you’re interested.
- ST. LOUIS BLUES 1P -0.5 (+115) – DK
- Montreal is awful when it comes to starting hot. They’re 0-3 in terms of 1P money lines in their last 3. They start slow, in their last 10 they’re averaging 0.30 GF and 2.00 GA. In STL last 10, they’re averaging 1.40 GF and 1.40 GA. While the 1P Over 1.5 (-150) can also be a play here, I like STL to grab an early lead. MTL is still getting accustomed to Martin St. Louis’ playing style while STL is looking to make a post season push. Sam Montembeault is also expected to get the start who hasn’t been great this season for MTL with Husso expected to get the start for STL.
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
