Apologies for the late article but what a slate of games we have tonight in the NHL. Here are my plays of the day!
A new Episode of Expected Bets For will be out tomorrow night so be on the lookout for that! I’ll have Nick Martin of the Action Network on this week to breakdown Thursdays games.
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Colorado Avalanche: 22-8-2, 3rd Central (22-8-2 Away)
- Nashville Predators: 23-11-2, 1st Central (9-3-2 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Colorado Avalanche | -163 | -135 | -1.5 (+165) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Nashville Predators | +125 | +115 | +1.5 (-190) | u6.5 (-115) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games.
- Colorado are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville’s last 6 games.
- Nashville are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.
Preview:
Both of these teams enter this matchup in great form. Nashville has lost only two games since the start of December while Colorado hasn’t dropped a game since the break.
This is a crucial game for both teams with Nashville holding a 2 point division lead over the Avalanche. However, Colorado does have 4 games in hand so even with a loss, Colorado can still recover.
These teams have played once before where Colorado lost 5-2 to Nashville. The Av’s were listed at -165 on the moneyline with the Total being set at 6.0. Nashville barely won the Expected Goal battle 2.91-2.90. The difference in that game was goaltending. Pavel Francouz had a -1.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) while Jusse Saros had a +0.9 GSAx.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanches starting lineup will look a little different tonight as they’re without one of top guys in Gabriel Landeskog. Colorado has the best Goals For Above Expected in the League with a +19.04 and is averaging the most Goals For Per 60 with a 3.41. Since the return, the Av’s have scored 4 or more goals in every game. One player to watch tonight is Nazem Kadri who looks to extend his point streak tonight to 13 games. He’s currently listed at -200 on DraftKings to record over 0.5 points.
In terms of defense, Colorado is averaging 2.6 Goals Against Per 60 which does rank near the bottom of the league. Their Penalty Kill has also been an issue for them this year ranking 28th. Darcy Kuemper looks to get the start tonight but hasn’t been confirmed yet. He hasn’t been great on the year with a -1.1 GSAx through 23 games payed.
Nashville Predators
The Predators had a slow start after the break dropping games to Washington and Columbus. However, the have rebounded nicely winning their last four.
Nashville doesn’t have an explosive offense quite like Colorado but they have looked better as of late. During this four game stretch, they have scored 6-3-4-4 in those games. On the season they have a 2.41 Goals For Per 60 with a +0.83 Goals For Above Expected. The Pred’s don’t generate a lot of scoring opportunities but have been able to capitalize on the ones they do create. Like the Av’s, Nashville will also be without one of their top forwards as Filip Forsberg remains in COVID protocols. One player prop to look at is Mikael Grandlund to record an assist. He has an assist in his last three games, and the last 6 of 8. Draftkings currently has the line set at -105 for Over 0.5 assists.
On defense, Nashville ranks much better with an average of 2.12 Goals Against Per 60. They’ve done a great job of limiting opponents shots on net which has benefitted Juuse Saros substantially. While Nashville does have a strong Penalty Kill, they’ll have their work cut out for them. They’re one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL and giving up Power Play’s to Colorado is not a great strategy.
Jusse Saros is expected to get the start in net for Nashville. He’s been sensational all season with a +16.6 GSAx through 29 games played.
Picks:
- COL/ NSH OVER 6.5 (-105)
- As previously mentioned the line has moved, so I’ll give this out pick out based off the current line. Nashville has a great defense and goalie but as we’ve seen in previous games, Colorado can generate offense against any team. Nashville’s offense has been good as of late with a Colorado defense that’s known to give up a lot of chances.
Other Plays for Tonight:
- PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 60 MINUTE LINE (-115)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
