NHL Preview & Picks – January 19th, 2022

Like most Wednesdays, there’s only a few games happening in the NHL. Despite the limited selection, there is some pretty good matchups.

Another Episode of Expected Bet For will drop today (Wednesday) with a great guest. We’ll breakdown the games happening on Thursday January 20th and offer some more insight into the NHL gambling world.

As always, I’ll be grading my bets from the night before. There was no article yesterday, but I did tweet out two picks so be sure to follow me on Twitter so you don’t miss anything. We went 2-0 hitting on both underdogs.

1. Carolina Hurricanes ml (+115)
   1. While I didn’t take the overnight line at +110, I did get some CLV as bets came in late on Boston. The Carolina Hurricanes are one of the most well rounded teams in the NHL. I understand that the Bruins have been great recently but at + money they’re almost an auto bet every time. GRADE: B+
2. Vancouver Canucks ml (+110)
   1. Well thank you to Thatcher Demko who won this game for the Canucks. Vancouver was outscored in xG 2.73 to NSH’s 3.0. To be honest, we shouldn’t have won this game and it wasn’t a great bet looking back at it. GRADE: B-

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-9-3, 3rd Atlantic (10-5-2 Away)
• New York Rangers: 25-10-4, 1st Metropolitan (10-3-2 Home)

Trends:

• Toronto are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto’s last 14 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers’ last 7 games.
• NY Rangers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.

Preview:

These teams have faced off twice this year. The Rangers stole the first game on the road in a 2-1 OT victory back in October. Then, Toronto evened the series beating the Rangers 2-1 in November.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Coming out of the Christmas break the Leafs have looked much better, despite dropping two games. Their first loss came at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche in OT back on January 8th. Then a shocking loss to the Arizona Coyotes on January 12th, where they had an xG of 3.88 to Arizona’s 1.87.

This will be the Leafs first game in a few days, as their game against New Jersey was postponed on the 17th. After tonight’s game against the Rangers, they’ll stay in New York to take on the Islanders Saturday night.

As of late Toronto’s offense has found their stride, averaging 4.5 Goals For Per Game which is much better than their season average of 3.39. Overall, Toronto hasn’t been great on the year with a -10.35 Goals For Above Expected. However, they did have some injury problems in the beginning portion of the season leaving some gaps in their lineup up front. Now they have all of their superstars back on the ice and look much better. The Maple Leafs boast the 2nd best Power Play in the league converting at a rate of 29.7%. Toronto does generate a ton of scoring chances and should again tonight based on the shot differential between these teams. They are going to be without Nick Ritchie and Indrej Kase who remain in Covid-19 protocols.

In terms of their defense, Toronto has also been much better as of late with the only real outlier coming in their last game against St. Louis where they allowed 5. Colorado and the Golden Knights also put up 5 and 3 respectively but are very good offense teams so it’s hard count that against them. On the year Toronto is allowing an average of 2.56 Goals Against with a -7.44 Goals Against Above Expected. Their Penalty Kill currently ranks 7th and should be in for a test tonight against a strong Rangers Power Play.

Jack Campbell is expected to get the start for the Maple Leafs. He’s been great for them this year with a +15.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). However, he has allowed 3 or more goals in his last three starts.

New York Rangers

Just like the Leafs, the Rangers have been playing great hockey since the break with a 6-3 record. Their three losses all came on the road and against some pretty solid teams including Florida, Vegas, and Los Angeles.

The Rangers are currently in 1st place in the Metropolitan division but most likely wont be there for long as Carolina has several games in hand on them and are only two points back. This isn’t a shot at the Rangers by any means but they aren’t the best team in that division and will probably be looking at a Wild Card spot come playoffs.

New York hasn’t been great offensively this year only averaging 2.85 Goals For. They do have a +0.24 Goals For Above Expected which is due to their lack of chances created. The Rangers are able to capitalize on the chances they create at a rate barely above expected. However, the problem is they don’t create enough chances to compete against these high scoring teams. Looking back at their schedule since November, they haven’t won a game where an opponent has scored more than 4 goals. Listen, I get that 4 is a lot to score, but they rely on their defense and goalie to keep them in games.

Speaking of their defense, they have one of the best in the NHL which is the main reason for their success. They have the 2nd best Goals Against averaging only 2.44 per game. The Rangers also have the 3rd best Penalty Kill Percentage at 85.6 %. Their defense will have to find a way to shut down Toronto’s high powered offense if they want to have a chance in this game. The good news for New York is that they are allowing less Goals at Home, however, the bad news is Toronto is averaging more Goals For on the road.

The main component of the Rangers success tonight will depend on their netminder, Igor Shesterkin. He’s expected to get the nod tonight in net and enters this matchup with the best GSAx in the NHL, +20.7. If he’s on, the Rangers have a shot, if not, Toronto wins this game. It’s truly as simple as that.

Picks:

• NYR/ TOR UNDER 5.5 (+100)
  • So the line is set at 5.5 which automatically tells me that Vegas thinks this game is going under. The majority of the Leafs games have been set at 6.0/6.5 this year. People may think that this is great value with the total being set so low but lets look at the Rangers who have their total constantly set at 5.5/6.0. Based off the line set, it looks like the Rangers will win and the game will go under. Both of the previous matchups have also gone under which does concern me slightly but regardless I think this games stays under based on what the line is telling us.

Other Plays for Tonight:

• COLORADO AVALANCHE TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (-120)
  • The Avalanche have gone over 3.5 Goals For in their past 9 games. Their offense clicking on all cylinders right now and face an Anaheim team that has allowed 4 or more goals in 6 of their last 7. These teams have faced off twice already this season and Colorado has gone over this number in both of those games.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.