NHL Preview & Picks – January 21st, 2022

I hope everyone enjoyed the last episode of Expected Bets For with Franco The Banker. He was an awesome guest that provided some incredible insight into the player prop market. In case you missed it you can check it out here. We went 2-1 on the night just missing out on the sweep with the COL/LAK game failing to go Over 6.

Now onto today’s slate of games. We have several teams coming off games last night which, is something to watch out for. In terms of line movement, there hasn’t been any major changes from the opening lines posted but I’m sure that will change before puck drop. The majority of the home teams are underdogs which is also something to be warry of so pay attention to the home/away splits.

Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks

• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Minnesota Wild: 22-10-3, 4th Central (10-7-2 Away)
• Chicago Blackhawks: 15-18-6, 7th Central (8-7-3 Home)

Trends:

• Minnesota are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Blackhawks last 5 overall.
• Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

Preview:

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild enter this game following a 4-3 Shootout loss to the red hot Colorado Avalanche on Monday. They’ve had a few days off and should be well rested heading into this matchup. Even though the Wild will be well rested, they’re currently plagued by the injury bug with several key member’s of the team questionable/ out for tonight.

Prior to Monday’s loss, the Wild were on a bit of a roll winning their last three against some solid opponents including Anaheim, Washington, and Boston. This has been an up and down rollercoaster for them this year and they desperately need some stability if they’re looking to make a post season push. The Wild currently sit in 4th place in the Central division but, do have 7 games in hand on the Nashville Predators who sit above them with just 6 more points.

Minnesota is a top tier offensive team in the NHL averaging 3.08 Goals For Per 60 which ranks 4th. They’re the 2nd best team in Goals For Above Expected with a +17.58. The issue with this number is while it’s great and they’ve taken advantage of scoring chances, they fail to create a lot of scoring chances. They rank near the bottom in xGF which isn’t really sustainable. If you’re looking to be an offensive juggernaut in the NHL they need to start creating more opportunities for themselves. Their Power Play hasn’t been great this season ranking 24th, converting at a rate of 17%. In their last 5 games, the man advantage has been even worse only capitalizing at a rate of 13%.

The Wild will likely be without Ryan Hartman and Nick Bjugstad who remain in COVID protocols. Hartman is their 3rd leading scorer on the team and will be a significant loss.

In terms of player props to target for Minnesota, lets start with their leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov. He’s currently on a 6 game point streak tallying 6 goals and 6 assists during that stretch. Another guy to look at is Mats Zuccarello who’s also on a 6 game point streak collecting 3 goals and 7 assists during that period.

Defensively, the Wild haven’t been anything to write home about. They rank middle of the table in terms of their Goals Against Per 60 giving up 2.54 on average. The Wild are allowing the 23rd most Shots on Goal Against per game and shouldn’t be a major flaw here as Chicago ranks 30th in Shots on Goal For per game. Their Penalty Kill ranks 16th and has seen a lot of action as of late as they’re one of the least disciplined teams in the league. The one area where the Minnesota defense thrives is their ability to limit High Danger Shots Against giving up the fewest in the NHL.

The Wild will continue to be without defensemen Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin as they remained injured.

The main question tonight is who will be in net come puck drop for Minnesota. Their starting goaltender Cam Talbot is currently listed as day-to-day and is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is able to go he enters this game with a -0.2 GSAx through 24 games played. If he’s unable to go, Kappo Kahkonen will likely get the start who has a +2.0 GSAx on the year in his 12 games played. He’s been a fine replacement for Talbot in his 4 game absence never allowing more than 3 goals in any of those starts.

EDIT: Kahkonen confirmed as starter for MIN

Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago enters this game spot in a similar spot. They’re coming off a 3-2 Shootout loss against the Seattle Kraken on Monday. Prior to that loss, they rattled off a 4 game winning streak knocking off Anaheim, Montreal, Columbus, and Vegas. Chicago was the favorite in three of those four games with the only upset coming in their win against the Golden Knights on the road. The Blackhawks were scheduled to play Edmonton on January 18th however, that game was postponed.

This team was a dark horse Stanley Cup contender at the beginning of the season with the acquisitions they made. All hopes of that have faded unless they can put together an incredible run in the second half of the season. If you’re looking for a glimpse of hope for this team, they currently sit only 12 points out of the final Wild Card spot.

Chicago has several issues with their team but let’s start with the offense. They have the leagues worst average in terms of Goals For Per 60 with 1.79. Chicago fails to create scoring chances and it shows with their Expected Goals For of just 60.05. Their Power Play ranks 19th but has shown signs of life exceeding their season rate of 18.8% in their last three games.

Even at 33 years old, Patrick Kane still leads this team in points and will be guy you’re looking to target in terms of player props for Chicago. He hasn’t had a great season by any means failing to score in 13 games in a row before breaking that streak three games ago against Montreal. However, he has scored 2 goals in his last 3 and is on a 8 game point streak.

Other players that are on point streaks include Dominik Kubalik (3 games), Brandon Hagel (3 games), and Erik Gustafsson (3 games). The odds for these players to record a point will undoubtedly be higher than Kane and will offer more value.

The Blackhawks will be without Kirby Dach and Brett Connolly who remain sidelined with COVID.

In addition to their issues up front, the Blackhawks also have major issues defensively. Chicago has the 4th worst Goal Differential (-21) which is more so a reflection of the whole team. They have the 5th worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +9.68 and have an average of 2.45 Goals Against Per 60. Their Penalty Kill is also a concern ranking 25th but, just like their Power Play, has been much better as of late.

Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to get the start tonight and just like the whole team, has under performed on the year. He has a -2.3 GSAx in his 27 starts which is horrendous when you compare it to last year when he had a +17.9 GSAx for Vegas. The good news is that he’s looked much better as of late allowing 2-0-2-2-1 in his last 5 starts.

Picks:

• MINNESOTA WILD/ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS OVER 5.5 (-120)
  • When you look at this game, is extremely tough to handicap because you do have to put a lot more emphasis on their recent performances, specifically Chicago’s. They’ve been a completely different team that has been playing much better hockey. These teams haven’t faced off against each other this year so there’s no real data on how they’ve matched up in the past. They did meet twice in the pre-season but with different lineups so I don’t really factor that in. The Blackhawks have been better at home and Minnesota has struggled on the road, which isn’t necessarily anything crazy or out of the ordinary. In fact, it’s to be expected.
  • As previously mentioned, both teams are well rested and have trended towards the over on three or more days of rest. Chicago’s offense has shown signs of life which makes me believe that they can contribute a few goals in this game. Minnesota has scored at least 3 or more in their last 6 games and should be able to get several past this Chicago team. While Kappo Kahkonen and Marc-Andre Fleury have been better as of late, it’s not a major concern here. The only solid offensive team Chicago has faced in their previous few games is Vegas. If Seattle can get three past this team, I believe Minnesota can at least do the same. Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been great recently in terms of goals allowed and will give this Chicago offense several opportunities.

Other Plays for Tonight:

• ST. LOUIS BLUES IN REGULATION (+100)
  • Last night (Thursday) the Kraken defeated the San Jose Sharks 3-2. The Kraken were a slight home favorite in that matchup (-115) but have struggled in back to back games all season going 1-5. The Blues are finally healthy and will have a full squad tonight that should be well rested as their last game took place on January 17th. While St. Louis hasn’t been great on the road this season with a 7-7-3 record, they catch the Kraken in a great spot. St. Louis is a much better team than Seattle and ranks better in nearly every category. The current line is around -170 and I expect that to shift to close to -190 around puck drop. I’m going to lock this number in over night and back the Blues here to grab one on the road in regulation.

EDIT: Husso for STL/ Daccord for SEA

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.