We go 3-0 last night cashing on MIN/CHI Over 5.5 and STL Blues in Regulation. I also added Jonathan Huberdeau over 0.5 Power Play pts late on twitter (@GatorBetting).
The MIN/CHI total soon moved to 6 later on in the day so we got incredible value there as the game ended with 6 goals total (MIN 5- CHI 1). Like most sports, closing line value means everything and that was a prime example of it. Instead of a push, we got a win.
The STL Blues in Regulation also moved from +100, which was what I posted and took it at, to around -120 before puck drop.
It’s a solid Saturday slate of games in the NHL which will be over shadowed by the NFL Playoffs as expected. If you’re looking for NFL bets be sure to check out the other articles posted on the site as those guys have incredible knowledge and insight.
Now onto todays breakdown and picks…
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-10-3, 3rd Atlantic (10-6-2 Away)
- New York Islanders: 14-13-6, 8th Metropolitan (7-6-3 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -165 | -165 | -1.5 (+150) | o5.5 (-115) |
| New York Islanders | +145 | +145 | +1.5 (-170) | u5.5 (-105) |
Trends:
- Over is 4-1-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 road games.
- Islanders are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Islanders last 6 overall.
Preview:
This will be the second time these teams face off against each other. The first meeting was back in November where Toronto defeated the Islanders 3-0. Toronto closed that game at -120 and the Total was set at 5.5. Mitch Marner scored twice in that game and will be a guy I talk more upon in terms of player props.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs are coming off a 6-3 loss against the New York Rangers on Wednesday night. Despite the loss, Toronto had a better Expected Goals than the Rangers (4.1 – 3.13). The issue was Jack Campbell’s performance as he finished the night with a -2.28 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Toronto has struggled a bit late failing to win two games in a row since the start of January where they faced two inferior opponents. The Leafs will have had two days off since their last game and on two days rest are 8-0-2. More specifically are 5-1 when coming off a loss.
In terms of offense, the Leafs have look great as of late. They’ve scored 3 or more goals in all of their January games with the only outlier coming a few games back against Arizona. To be fair, Karel Vejmelka had a word class performance in that game making 45 saves. On the year, Toronto ranks 9th in Goals For Per 60 averaging 2.69 per game. The Leafs are also tied for the best Power Play % in the NHL, converting at a rate of 29.5 %.
If you’re looking to target player props tonight, start with Toronto’s leading scorer Austin Matthews. He’s currently on a 6 game point streak tallying 5 goals and 3 assists during that stretch. Mitch Marner has also been good in his last two games collecting a goal and an assist in each. Another player is Michael Bunting who’s on a 5 game point streak.
Defensively, Toronto gives up an average of 2.34 Goals Against Per 60. They have a -4.98 Goals Against Above Expected which is pretty good. However, in their last two games they have given up 6 and 5 goals against. The 6 goal game was against a very weak Rangers team in terms of offensive ability. I touched on it before, but Jack Campbell had a rare off night which does happen. The Leafs Penalty Kill has also been a strong point of theirs ranking 7th. In their last nine games they have only given up 2 power play goals to opposing teams.
Toronto will be without Jake Muzzin tonight who suffered a concussion on Tuesday night. There’s no time table for when he’ll return. They will get back Justin Holl who exited COVID protocols today and should return the lineup after missing two games.
Peter Mrazek has been confirmed as the starter for tonight. He’s got a .882 SV% and a -2.3 GSAx on the year in four starts. His last outing came back on January 12th where he allowed 2 goals against. In his other starts he’s allowed 4-4-3 goals against.
New York Islanders
The Islanders defeated the Arizona Coyotes last night by a score of 4-0. Brock Nelson led the charge scoring two goals with Scott Mayfield also recorded a goal and an assist. Ilya Sorokin recorded his fourth shutout of the season stopping all 17 shots he faced.
New York struggled in the beginning of the season which was partly due to their thirteen game road trip they had to take as they awaited the completion of their new arena. However, they seem to have gotten their groove back winning six of their last seven games. This may be misleading as they really didn’t face any strong opponents during that stretch and in the only game they did, they lost.
Looking at this team from an offensive prospective they haven’t been good. They have the second worst average in terms of Goals For Per 60 with 2.09. That being said, in their last three games they have scored four or more goals. So clearly, they have figured some things out up front. They rank dead last in the NHL in terms of Expected Goals For with just 58.54. In those last three games they have also significantly exceeded their average shots on goal for which was needed. Their Power Play ranks 23rd converting at a rate of just 17.6% and hasn’t found the back of the net in the past four games.
I honestly wouldn’t play any Islander’s player props but if you really want to, look at Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey who are both on three game point streaks.
This team is built around their defense and their ability to shut teams down. They have a -8.03 Goals Against Above Expected and only average 2.09 Goals Against Per 60. In their last seven games, an opponent has only scored 3 goals against them once. New York’s Penalty Kill has also been good on the year ranking 10th.
Since Ilya Samsonov got the start last night, it’s likely that Semyon Varlamov will get the nod in net. Sorokin has the better goalie by far on the season which does hurt the Isles chances to grab back to back wins at home. Varlamov enters the game with a 0.0 GSAx on the year in his eleven starts.
Picks:
- TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ NEW YORK ISLANDERS OVER 5.5 (-120)
- In the past few games the Islanders offense has really started to click. Toronto’s offense is averaging 4 goals for and 3 against in their last 10. While the Islanders are a team that normally goes under, they are 3-3 to the over/under on back to back games. Combine all that with the fact that Varlamov and Mrazek will likely get the start, I like the over here.
Other Picks For Today:
- COLORADO AVALANCHE 1P -0.5 (-105)
- When looking at this game, there really isn’t much value as Colorado is a massive favorite. In terms of 1P statistics, Colorado is averaging 1.37 Goals For and 0.84 Goals Against. Montreal is averaging 0.57 Goals For and 1.17 Goals Against on the road. Colorado has started hot in their past few games, hitting the 1P ml in four of their last five games. It also looks like Cayden Primeau will be starting for Montreal who hasn’t been great for the Habs in his five starts.
LATE ADD JAN 22, 1:20 AM: David Pastrnak Over 0.5 Power Play Points (+130)
LATE ADD Jan 22, 3:13 AM: Tampa Bay Lightning in Regulation (-125)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
