NHL Preview & Picks – January 25th, 2023

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We only have five games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down one of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Game Previews:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Carolina Hurricanes: 29-9-8, 1st Metropolitan (15-4-6 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 28-13-8, 1st Central (13-5-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Carolina Hurricanes +110 -110 +1.5 (-250) o6 (+100)
Dallas Stars -130 -110 -1.5 (+210) u6 (-120)

 

Carolina defeated Dallas earlier in the season winning 5-4 with Martin Necas scoring the winner in overtime. However, it will be a completely different goaltender matchup tonight as Anderson and Oettinger have been confirmed as the starters.

The Hurricanes have turned things around winning four of their last five, after losing four straight. In their most recent game, Max Pacioretty suffered a likely season-ending Achilles injury after he had just returned from a similar injury. Carolina has faced adversity all season with injuries, specifically in net. Frederick Anderson recently returned from a lower-body injury and has been quick to get back to his All-Star form.

Dallas has found little consistency as of late going 5-5 in their last ten games. They’re coming off an overtime loss to Buffalo where they faced a hot goaltender in Craig Anderson. Before that, the Stars’ offense was clicking on full cylinders as they had scored three or more goals in each of their last five games. The Stars rank 2nd in goals against per game averaging 2.55 anchored by Jake Oettinger. He’s been great this season with a +18.2 GSAx ranking 5th and has a shutout in two of his last four starts.

CAR: F. Anderson (9-3-0), 2.40 GAA, .910 SV% [CONFIRMED]

DAL: J. Oettinger (21-7-5), 2.22 GAA, .925 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Pick(s):

  • Edmonton Oilers 1st Period -0.5 (-105) – Caesars
    • Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units

On the year, the Oilers are averaging 1.06 GF/G and 0.79 GA/G in the first period. At home, Edmonton averages 1.00 GF/G and 0.92 GA/G. Columbus on the other hand is averaging 0.57 GF/G and 0.94 GA/G this season. On the road, those numbers drop to 0.35 GF and 0.70 GA. In Edmonton’s last five games, they’ve led after the first period in four of those matchups. Columbus has been trailing in the first period in three of their last five.

Joonas Korpisalo who’s been confirmed as the starter for Columbus tonight has struggled as of late allowing 4/3/6 goals against in his last three starts.

 

  • Vancouver Canucks/ Seattle Kraken Over 6.5 (-130) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
    • Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units

The Canucks defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 last night with new head coach Rick Tocchet making his debut behind the bench. Historically, Vancouver has dominated Seattle winning each of their six previous matchups against them. In five of those games, the total went over.

Collin Delia got the start last night for Vancouver so Spencer Martin will get the nod tonight. He hasn’t been great this year with -16.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 26 games played. In his last four starts, he’s allowed four or more goals against in three of those games. Last week against Tampa Bay, he allowed four goals on ten shots and was promptly pulled. Earlier in December, he faced off against the Kraken allowing 5 goals against on thirty-one shots.

Martin Jones will get the start for the Seattle Kraken. He’s also struggled this year with a 2.86 GAA and .894 SV%. In his last three starts, he’s allowed five goals against in two of those games. In his one start against Vancouver this season he allowed five goals against.

Both of these starting goalies have been sub-par this season and against their opponents. The Canucks showed some signs of life under their new head coach and I expect them to come out firing again tonight. Seattle’s offense has been in a bit of a slump but Vancouver ranks 31st in goals against which should help them out.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
    • Brady Tkachuk has gone over this number in four of his last five games at home. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game. The Islanders rank 17th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.4. On the road, that number increases to 32.9. He’s on Ottawa’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. New York has taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games. In their previous matchup against the Islanders this year, Tkachuk recorded 6 shots on goal on 11 shot attempts.
  • William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – BetRivers
    • William Nylander has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Rangers rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.3. On the road, that number increases to 29.8.
  • Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
    • Connor McDavid has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Blue Jackets rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.2. On the road, that number increases to 35.9. They also give up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers. He’s on Edmonton’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. The Blue Jackets have taken three or more penalties in three of their last five games.
  • Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – Caesars
    • Oliver Bjorkstrand has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last three. The Canucks rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.8. On the road, that number increases to 33.5. They also give up the 4th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. Bjorkstrand has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his two previous matchups against the Canucks.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

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