NHL Preview & Picks – January 26th, 2022

As with most Wednesday’s in the NHL we have a smaller slate than normal. That being said, we do have some great matchups tonight.

I breakdown the marquee matchup between the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche and offer some more picks for the night.

Boston Bruins @ Colorado Avalanche

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: TNT
• Boston Bruins: 24-13-2, 4th Atlantic (10-5-1 Away)
• Colorado Avalanche: 29-8-3, 1st Central (18-2-1 Home)

Trends:

• Boston are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.
• Colorado are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games.

Preview:

Boston Bruins

The Bruins start a three game road trip tonight when they take on the red hot Colorado Avalanche. Boston is coming off a 5-3 loss to Anaheim on Monday where Tukka Rask struggled. Since the start of January the Bruins have been much better with a 7-3 record in their last 10. If Boston wants to continue to climb the Atlantic division standings they’ll need to stay hot as it looks like it will be a battle between them and Toronto for 3rd place.

Boston ranks 12th in terms of Goals For Per Game with 3.10. Their last three games have been on par with that number scoring 3-3-4. The Bruins have the highest xGoals % in the NHL and generate a ton of chances. This definitely influences their Goals For Above Expected which is a -4.99. As I previously stated, in the beginning of the year the Bruins weren’t great offensively but, as of late have gotten it going. They lacked depth scoring and now with their new line combinations, score at a much higher rate. Boston also has a great Power Play ranking 7th converting at a rate of 25.2%.

In terms of player props for Boston, I would look to target David Pastrnak. He’s currently on a six game point streak recording 7 goals and 3 assists during that stretch.

Defensively, Boston is averaging 2.72 Goals Against Per Game overall and 2.38 Goals Against on the road. The Bruins have a great defensive core which makes them a very dangerous team if their offense is able to contribute as they have recently. They give up the 4th fewest Shots on Goal Against and the 2nd fewest High Danger Shots Against. Despite all these great stats, the Bruins have the 4th worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +10.09. This number isn’t all on the defense as goaltending has been a major area of concern for them.

Matt Grzelcyk is currently day to day with an undisclosed injury so we’re unsure if he’ll be able to go tonight. If he is unable to, it will be a significant loss for the Bruins defensive core.

It looks as though Linus Ullmark will get the start in net for the Bruins. He has a -1.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his 20 games played this season. In his last three starts, he has allowed 3-2-3 goals against. Two of those three games were against pretty solid offenses, Carolina and Washington, but he’ll certainly have his work cut out for him tonight as he faces Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche

The hottest team in the NHL will look to extend their seven game win streak tonight against a worthy opponent. While the 7 game win streak is impressive, what’s even more outstanding is that since the start of January, Colorado has only lost one game which was an overtime loss to Nashville. During January, the Avalanche are 12-1, outscoring their opponents 52-27.

In terms of offense Colorado averages 4.10 Goals For Per Game and has an even better average at home of 4.38. Despite Colorado’s great goals for average they have actually been trending under that number only scoring 2-3-4-2-4 in their last five games. The defenses they faced weren’t nearly as good as Boston’s is so it should be interesting to see how they fair against them tonight. The Avalanche rank 10th in Power Play % with a rate of 24.5% but, have a conversion rate of 66.7% in their last three games. Colorado has the 2nd best Goals For Above Expected with a +17.98, only behind Minnesota.

If you’re looking for player props to target, lets start with Mikko Rantanen. In his last seven games he has 6 goals and 9 assists. Nathan MacKinnon has also been good recently with 3 goals and 5 assists in his last six games. Cale Makar, despite being a defenseman, is also a guy to target. He’s an assist machine tallying 9 in his last 10 games.

Defensively, Colorado is allowing an average of 2.95 Goals Against Per Game. At home, they are even better only allowing an average of 2.52. The Avalanche have a +2.06 Goals Against Above Expected which is middle of the league. In Colorado’s last four games, they have only allowed three goals combined which has honestly made the difference as their offense has “struggled” a bit. One are of concern for them tonight should be their Penalty Kill which ranks 27th. Boston’s Power Play has been great as of late and could be the difference maker if Colorado gets into penalty trouble. The Av’s are also one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL so definitely something to keep an eye on.

Pavel Francouz is expected to get the start in net for Colorado tonight. Francouz has a +3.4 GSAx on the season in his seven games played. He’s recorded a shut out in his last two starts and looks to be in great form.

Pick:

• COLORADO AVALANCHE/ BOSTON BRUINS OVER 6.0 (-120)
  • I can see this total moving to 6.5 closer to game time so I want to lock it in at 6.0. The Bruins offense has really gotten going lately and I think that combined with Colorado’s pace of play this game should go over. While Colorado does like to push the pace and control the puck in the offensive zone, it can allow for sloppy turn overs which the Bruins should be able to capitalize on.

Other Picks For Today:

• CALGARY FLAMES/ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 1P OVER 1.5 (-140)
  • On the road the Flames are averaging 1.30 Goals For and 0.57 Goals Against in the first period. At home Columbus is averaging 1.00 Goals For and 0.95 Goals Against in the first period. More specifically, in Calgary’s last 10 games they’re averaging 1.20 Goals For and 1.00 Goals Against in the 1P. In Columbus’ last 10, they’re averaging 1.10 Goals For and 1.40 Goals Against in the 1P. Calgary has scored at least 2 goals in the first period in their last three games. The 1P Over has hit in Columbus’ last three of four games.

Most of the player props are not out yet so be sure to follow me on Twitter for any late adds to the card.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.