Everything seems to be returning to normal in the NHL with fans being allowed back and the Toronto Maple Leafs unable to win a playoff series. The Maple Leafs need to make some drastic changes because they should be winning in the post season with all that talent. To be fair, Carey Price did have an astounding series which is something not many people predicted coming off an injury. Enough Leafs talk, lets take a look at todays match up as the Carolina Hurricanes look to rebound in Game 2 after losing the series opener by a score of 2-1.
Tampa Bay Lighting (-115) @ Carolina Hurricanes (-105)
Andrei Vasilevskiy was the difference maker in Game 1 as he stopped 37 of 38 shots for a +1.76 GSAx. The only goal Vasilevskiy allowed came on the power-play early in the third. Alex Nedeljkovic who has been great all post season for Carolina, allowed a weak game winning goal by Brayden Point. Even with allowing that goal, Nedeljkovic still managed to come out of Game 1 with a +0.35 GSAx.
Despite the score, Carolina led in xGF in Game 1 (2.76-2.35). Yet again, Tampa’s powerplay was the difference maker as it has been most of the playoffs. The addition of Kucherov has reignited this unit that is converting on 39.1% of their man advantages. However, the Cane’s do have a great penalty kill unit that has a 86.2 PK% in the playoffs. Carolina staying disciplined and out of the penalty box will be a major factor in this series moving forward.
Given the stats in Game 1, I think Carolina ml has some value here. The Cane’s are slight favorites tonight on most books, but you can get them at -110 on BetMGM & FanDuel. This is also the lowest ml the Cane’s have been offered at when facing the Lighting this year. They outplayed the Lightning but, came up short due to a fluke goal let in by Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes have been great at home all year and with a packed arena behind them, I think they rally take Game 2.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes -110 (Risk 1.1 Unit)
