We’ll were down to four teams, and like my myself, most people did not predict these to be the remaining teams. Last night we saw the New York Islanders steal Game 1 by a score of 2-1 with a closing line of +180. These 2021 NHL Playoffs have been crazy but I’m sure the surprises aren’t over yet.
Montreal Canadians (+215) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-255)
The Canadians are certainly the Cinderella story of the playoffs after coming back from a 3-1 Series deficit to defeat Toronto in Round 1. Then in Round 2, they sweep the Jets who just completed their own sweep over Edmonton in Round 1. The Vegas Golden Knights come into this Game and Series as heavy favorites after taking down the President Trophy Winners Colorado Avalanche.
For Game 1, the value is on the Canadians for sure given the line suggests that they would win this game roughly 30%. They have proven that they can beat anyone in these playoffs and are being completely undervalued in Game 1. However, that’s not the play tonight. Montreal is coming into Vegas and playing in front of a packed Arena for the first time this season. Vegas has one of the best atmospheres for hockey, and that place will be going crazy. The Canadians have anchored their playoff run around their defense which is headlined by their netminder Carey Price. Price comes into the playoffs with the third best GSAx of +8.6. Opposite of Price, Vegas will start Marc-Andre Fleury, who is right behind price in the rankings with a +4.7 GSAx. For tonight, I’m looking at the total which is set at 5.5 and juiced to the under. The Golden Knights have a xGA of 1.86 while the Canadians have an xGA of 2.26. The Golden Knights have an xGF of 2.24 while the Habs are right behind them with an 2.26 xGF. With the total set at 5.5, I think there’s some value on that line. These are two physical teams than rely on their defensive ability to win games which should be on display tonight.
Pick: VGS/ MTL Under 5.5 (-130), Risk 1.30 Units
