Vegas wound up taking Game 1 by a score of 4-1 which isn’t a shock for anyone. The Canadians are out matched in this Series on every level. The Golden Knights are again going off as heavy favorites in Game 2.
Montreal Canadians (+225) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-265)
The Habs have relied on Carey Price and their defensive ability to shut down teams throughout these playoffs but, have met their match with Vegas. In their first series with Toronto, they were able to dominate them physically. In their second series, the Jets top scorer got suspended debilitating Winnipeg’s offense. In this series, Vegas can match their physicality and generate offense from multiple lines.
Carey Price did not play well in Game 1 and finished the game with a -1.44 GSAx. This performance was highly unlikely and hopefully an outlier, or else this series could be over in 4. Montreal actually had a higher expected goals (all situations) in the series opener despite losing. Another positive for the Habs is they were able to shut down Vegas Powerplay which went 0-4 on the night.
Writing this, I’m really trying to find ways to spin this and argue for Montreal however, the fact is Vegas is the better team. The Knights are starting Fleury again tonight, who has been incredible. He held Montreal to just one goal in Game 1 and finished with a +3.4 GSAx. Trying to find value in this game is tough, the Knights at -265 is a price that I’m just not willing to lay despite this mismatch. I think tonight’s game will be a little bit closer as Price should have a rebound game but Montreal doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match. Instead, I’m looking to back Vegas in Regulation at -160. Yes, it’s still a steep price but Vegas should win this game, and do so in 60 minutes.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -0.5 in Regulation, -160 (Risk 1.60)
