The Lightning come back after a Game 4 loss and give us the worst beat down the Playoffs have seen this year. The Bolts defeated the Islanders by a score of 8-0. However, the Bolts only beat the Isles in xG by a score of 4.77 to 4.15. The real issue for the Islanders was in net, where Varlamov finished with a -0.93 GSAx. Ilya Sorokin who replaced Varlamov in the first period, finished the game with a worse GSAx of -2.3. As predicted, Andrei Vasilevskiy played great and rebounded from his sub-par Game 4 performance.
We now move onto Vegas where they look to build on their Game 4 Overtime win. The Canadians have given the Golden Knights a better series than most expected but, the Knights are heavy favorites tonight and are given a roughly 70% implied probability in Game 5.
Montreal Canadians (+195) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-230)
Goaltending; that’s what this series has been, and will be determined by. Fleury struggled in Game 3 where he gave up the puck with a minute left to tie the game. He would wind up finishing that game with a -0.53 GSAx. Robin Lehner started Game 4 and played excellent after an awful performance in Game 1 of the previous series vs Colorado. Lehner is the reason that Vegas won; Montreal finished with a higher xG in all situations and 5 on 5. Vegas’ Peter DeBoer has a decision tonight to make between the hot goalie in Lehner, or Fleury who has been great besides Game 3. Montreal will most likely keep their $10 million dollar man in net. At 33 years old Carey Price is still one of the best goalies in the league and worth every penny. He’s been the main catalyst behind the Canadians success this post season.
Looking at this Game, it’s the same situation that Tampa was in last night and they crushed the Isles. Vegas is the better team on paper but as mentioned before the ‘Habs have the second best goalie in the Playoffs. The Canadians currently average a higher Expected Goals 5v5 (per game), have more High-Danger Chances For 5v5, and a better High-Danger Conversion Rate 5v5. The Canadians are outplaying the Knights in this series based on the analytical data. Besides the Vegas starting goalie, another piece of news to watch out for is the return of Chandler Stephenson. His return is said to be “on the horizon” by Golden Knights coach Peter DeBoer. If Stephenson returns, he could provide the spark that Max Pacioretty needs to get going in this series. Even with all that said, the Canadians have been counted out of every series they’ve been in these Playoffs. At a price of +190 I like the ‘Habs to steal one on the road behind a world class performance from Carey Price. If you’re not looking to back the moneyline, look at Montreal +1.5 (-140). Besides Game 1, every game since has been decided by 1 goal including 2 OT Games.
Pick: Montreal Canadians +190 (Risk 0.53 Units)
Pick: Montreal Canadians +1.5, -140 (Risk 0.70 Units)
