The Lightning look to finish off the New York Islanders tonight in Game 6. The defending Stanley Cup Champions look to book their ticket back to finals, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since 1999. The last game was dreadful for the Long Island faithful as they got emaciated in a 8-0 rout. They look to bounce back at home in what could be their last game ever at the Coliseum.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) @ New York Islanders (+140)
The story line in this game is obviously if the Islanders can rebound after that loss. That depends on their goaltending, which has been a constant theme of these playoffs. As we saw last night Carey Price played great and led Montreal to a 4-1 win. Barry Trotz has a decision to make in net between Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. Sorokin enters this game with a +0.7 GSAx just behind Varlamov who has a +1.2 GSAx. Both of New York’s goalies have struggled at certain points but have still held their own. However, the biggest issue in this game for the Isle’s, is how to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’ll start again for the Bolts as has a playoffs best +22.4 GSAx.
The good news for the Islanders is they have been great at home all year. Despite losing the previous game 8-0, they only lost the expected goals battle by a score of 5.59 to 4.15 in all situations. The difference maker in this game was a name I’ve mentioned before in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who had a +4.15 GSAx in Game 5. The Isle’s received more good news yesterday with Matthew Barzal avoiding suspension and only being subjected to a $5,000 fine. The Islanders open at +140 home underdogs which is the highest line they’ve gone off at in the Coliseum these Playoffs. In this elimination Game I’m looking at backing the Under 5.0. Whoever starts in net for New York should rebound with a solid performance. At +110, I think this line has some value, especially given the amount of goals last game. Tampa had 6 powerplay chances last game and converted on 50% of those. There were a ton of outlying variables last game and I see most of them regressing to the mean in Game 6. I see this as a 2-1/ 3-1 game that could go either way.
Pick: Under 5.0, +110 (Risk 1.0 Unit)
