NHL Preview & Picks – March 28th, 2023

We went 1-0-1 last night continuing our hot streak (17-4-1 in L23). We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few key matchups along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

Key Matchups:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Carolina Hurricanes

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Tampa Bay Lightning: 42-26-6, 3rd Atlantic (17-19-1 Away)
• Carolina Hurricanes: 47-16-9, 4th Metropolitan (25-9-3 Home)

The Tampa Bay Lightning are firmly cemented in the third spot in the Atlantic Division baring an absolute collapse (which will not happen). As of now, they will face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team they beat in the first round of the playoffs last season. They’ve been in a little bit of a slump going 4-5-1 in their last ten but as we’ve seen in years past, this team can turn it around come playoff time. Carolina has clinched a playoff berth but are still in a battle for the first spot in the Metropolitan Division. They do have a three-point lead over New Jersey with two games in hand so it’s their division to lose. In their two previous matchups this season, Carolina has won both games.

Los Angeles Kings @ Calgary Flames

• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• Los Angeles Kings: 43-20-10, 2nd Pacific (18-11-6 Away)
• Calgary Flames: 33-26-15, 5th Pacific (17-15-4 Home)

The Los Angeles Kings still have a chance to win the Pacific Division. They’re currently two points behind the Vegas Golden Knights. As of late, the Kings have been on a tear going 8-0-2 in their last ten games. On the other hand, Calgary is hoping to make the playoffs sitting four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the second wild card spot. Despite going 5-5 in their last ten games, they have failed to win back-to-back games since early March. In their two matchups this season, the Kings have won both games.

Edmonton Oilers @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• Edmonton Oilers: 42-23-9, 3rd Pacific (22-11-3 Away)
• Vegas Golden Knights: 46-21-6, 1st Pacific (22-14-1 Home)

The Oilers currently sit in 3rd place in the Pacific Division. They’ve been playing some great hockey as of late going 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Edmonton’s offense has been hot scoring at least three goals a game during that span. Just like the Oilers, the Golden Knights have been great as of late going 8-2-0 in their last ten games. They’re at the top of the Pacific Division with a two point lead over the Los Angeles Kings. In their three previous matchups this season, the Oilers have gone 2-1. All of those games have gone over the total as well.

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

• Montreal Canadiens/ Philadelphia Flyers Over 6.5 (-110) – DraftKings

The Canadiens are coming off a 4-3 SO win against the Buffalo Sabres last night. Despite being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Habs haven’t thrown in the towel yet winning three of their last four games. Their offense has been great as of late averaging 3.80 GF/G while they’ve been worse defensively averaging 4.30 GA/G in their last ten games. Philadelphia’s offense has also found a spark of their own scoring at least three goals in each of their last six games. Given the new found offensive production I expect this to be a high scoring matchup tonight. Historically, the last four games between these teams have gone over the total as well. The Flyers have Carter Hart in net while Cayden Primeau will start for Montreal. Primeau will making his first start of the season which is another reason I like the total here.

• Pittsburgh Penguins in Regulation (-125) – DraftKings

The Penguins are coming off a nice 4-3 win against the Washington Capitals. They’re holding onto the second wild card spot in the East and need win every game they can. Casey Desmith started the last two games and will get the nod tonight. He’s been great in his last three starts only averaging 2.33 goals against during that span. Alex Nedeljkovic has been confirmed for Detroit who’s been bad this year with a -10.5 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). The Red Wings have also been struggling offensively only averaging 2.10 GF/G in their last ten. I think we see Pittsburgh put on a strong outing tonight as they look to solidify their spot in the playoffs. They’re an overall better team and they should prove it tonight.

• Winnipeg Jets in Regulation (-120) – DraftKings

The Winnipeg Jets are fighting for their playoff lives right now. After a great start, they’ve struggled in second half of the season. Despite that, they have found ways to win against inferior teams as shown in their recent games against Anaheim and Arizona. While they haven’t been the prettiest of wins, this team has found ways to prevail. Winnipeg has a similar scenario tonight against a Sharks team that hasn’t won in their last nine games. During that stretch, San Jose has lost by multiple goals in eight of those matchups. The Jets also have the advantage in net tonight given the matchup of Hellebuyck vs Reimer. James Reimer has surrendered five or more goals in each of his last two starts. Winnipeg’s clearly the superior team and should be able to handle a Sharks squad that looks like their ready for the offseason.

Player Props to Target:

• Joel Farabee over 0.5 Points (-122) – FanDuel
  • Joel Farabee has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s also recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last five. In his four previous matchups against the Canadiens, Farabee has recorded over 0.5 points each twice.

• Patrice Bergeron over 0.5 Points (-130) – FanDuel
  • Patrice Bergeron has gone over this number in each of his last five games. At home, he’s recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last four. In his two previous matchups against the Predators, Bergeron has recorded over 0.5 points each time.

• Brock Boeser over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+102) – FanDuel
  • Brock Boeser has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last four. The Blues rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.29. At home, that number drops slightly to 31.31. St. Louis has also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers in their last ten games. In his two previous matchups against the Blues, Boeser has gone over this number each time.

• Jason Zucker over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120) – DraftKings
  • Jason Zucker has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Red Wings rank 9th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.28. At home, that number drops slightly to 29.08. Detroit has also given up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers this season. In his previous matchups against the Red Wings, Zucker recorded seven shots on goal in eight shot attempts.

• Mike Matheson over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – BetRivers
  • Mike Matheson has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five. The Flyers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.44. At home, that number drops slightly to 30.46. Philadelphia has also given up the 8th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen in their last ten games. In his three previous matchups against the Flyers, Matheson has gone over this number each time.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.