NHL Preview & Picks – March 4th, 2022

Hopefully everyone enjoyed the latest episode of Expected Bets For. It was an awesome episode where we really went in depth when interpreting player props.

We have 7 games going tonight in the NHL with some great matchups. I breakdown the matchup between the Kings and Blue Jackets and offer a few other plays on the night. Unfortunately, player props aren’t out right now, so I’ll be sure to tweet out any plays I have for Friday’s games.

Los Angeles Kings @ Columbus Blue Jackets

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Los Angeles Kings: 29-19-7, 2nd Pacific (15-7-5 Away)
• Columbus Blue Jackets: 28-25-1, 5th Metropolitan (15-11-1 Home)

Trends:

• Los Angeles are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
• Kings are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Los Angeles’ last 11 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Columbus’ last 14 games.
• Columbus are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games this season.

Previous Matchups:

• No Matchups this season

Preview:

Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles Kings have been playing some great hockey as of late going 7-3 in their last 10 games. That being said, they have struggled in their last two games losing 7-0 to the Bruins and in their most recent game, losing 4-3 to Dallas. They’ll play their second game of a four game road trip tonight before traveling to Buffalo on Sunday and Boston on Monday.

The Kings rank 19th in Goals For per game averaging 2.91. In their last 10, they’ve been much better averaging 3.50. Their top line of Iafallo-Kopitar-Kempe has generated 0 points combined in their past two games, which is a concern. On the year they average, 35.40 Shots on Goal For, which has stayed relatively the same in their most recent games. The main driving factor in the increase in goals has been their Shooting % increasing. Los Angeles generates a ton of shots, but ranked 30th in Shooting %. Now, with the increase in Shooting %, they’re finally able to generate more offense. One area of concern for them is their Power Play, which ranks 30th. Their man advantage has been better as of late, but is still an area they desperately need to improve on.

While their defense has been solid all year, ranking 11th in Goals Against per game (2.82), they have struggled in their last 10, averaging 3.30 Goals Against. They rank 1st in terms of Shots on Goal Allowed with an average of 28.7 and have been even better in their most recent games. Columbus’ numbers aren’t great in terms of Shots on Goal For, so I would avoid any SOG props for Blue Jackets players tonight. Just like their Power Play, Los Angeles struggles on the Penalty Kill, ranking 28th. They are one of the more disciplined teams in the league, and the Blue Jackets Power Play isn’t anything special, so again, I would avoid taking any Columbus Power Play props tonight.

Jonathan Quick is expected to get the start in net tonight. He was pulled in his most recent start against Boston, after allowing 5 goals on 19 shots. Peterson started in their last game against Dallas, so he’s unlikely to start. Besides that outlying performance in his most recent game, Quick has been good this year with a +12.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (12th). We’ll see if he can rebound from that last start and help the Kings grab a win on the road.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets are also playing some great hockey recently as well, going 7-3 in their last 10. In their most recent game they took down the Devils 4-3.. Columbus was a slight home favorite in that game, and New Jersey had played the night before so it was really a great spot for the Devils. However, tonight they’ll face a Kings team that’s struggled in their last two but, prior to that was playing well. It’ll be interesting to see how they matchup tonight as a home underdog.

Offensively, Columbus has been better in their last 10 averaging 3.80 Goals For per game as compared to their season average of 3.26. While their season average does rank 9th, the increased production from Laine and other top forwards has provided them with a much needed offensive spark. They’re currently 5th in the Metro and will need all the help they can get as they look to make a playoff push in the second half of the season. They average two more Shots on Goal (31) in their last 10, which has provided them with more chances. The Blue Jackets are one of the best teams at capitalizing on chances so when they generate more, their goals per game average is obviously going to go up. One are that they desperately need to improve on is their man advantage as they rank 23rd but, have been converting at a higher rate in their last 10. The Kings don’t have a great Penalty Kill so this should be a great spot for them to build on that number.

In terms of defensive strength, their second to last in Goals Against per game averaging 3.61. They’ve cut that number down a bit as of late but, is still an area for improvement. One of the main reasons why they continue to allow so many goals against, is the fact that they give up the most Shots on Goal against in the NHL. Even with the slight downtick in goals against, they’ve actually been giving up more shots against in their last 10 averaging 37.40 per game. A strong point of this defensive unit, if you want to even say that, has been their Penalty Kill which ranks 13th. However, they’ve given up at least one Power Play goal in their past three games.

The Blue Jackets have been dealing with some injuries in net in the past few weeks. It’s expected that their starter, Elvis Merzlikins will get the nod tonight. In two most recent games, he’s faced 33 and 40 shots, which is crazy. Despite the amount of shots he’s faced, he was solid in those performances. On the year he has a -5.0 Goals Saved Above Expected, ranking 82nd. The Blue Jackets best goalie this year has actually been J-F Berube, who’s another candidate to get the start tonight. We’ll see who gets the nod after the morning skate but as of now, I’m assuming its Merzlikins.

Pick:

• LOS ANGELES KINGS/ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS OVER 6.0 (-110)
  • Like I mentioned before I’m assuming the goalie matchup will be Quick vs Merzlikins. If Berube gets the start, I’m a little less confident in this bet but I still think it’s a good play. The total in this game opened at 5.5, which was way to low, and is now at 6.0. I don’t mind taking the 6.0 here as it offers an option for a push. Both of these teams have been scoring at a higher rate as of late, and with the Kings increased Shooting % and the amount of shots the Blue Jackets let up, I like their to be plenty of chances. Columbus has been better offensively and while the Kings are an okay team defensively, the Jackets are better at home and should be able to put a few by Quick.
  • If you have BETMGM available, you can get the over at -105

Other Plays on the Night:

• MINNESOTA WILD 60 MINUTE LINE (-115)
  • The Sabres are coming off their game of the year beating the Leafs 5-1 in Toronto. Minnesota has struggled as of late but are still a far superior team to Buffalo. While the over is tempting in this game, I think the Wild can handle the Sabres in regulation even after playing last night. Buffalo also beat the Wild 3-2 earlier this year so this is somewhat of a revenge spot for them as well.

• NEW YORK RANGERS 60 MINUTE LINE (-105)
  • Pretty simple here, the Rangers are a significantly better team when playing at MSG. New York is not a great team by any means, despite them being 3rd in the standings. They heavily rely on their defensive ability and more specifically, Shesterkin who will start for them tonight. Jon Gillies is expected to start for the Devils tonight who has given up 6 goals in each of his last two starts. While New York’s not a great offensive team, as I mentioned before, they should be able to get a few by Gillies and win this game in regulation.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.