NHL Preview & Picks – March 9th, 2022

We only two games going in the NHL tonight but both will be nationally broadcasted on TNT in the states. The first matchup is between the Capitals and the Oilers. The Capitals are coming off a game last night vs Calgary while Edmonton is also coming off a game against the Flames two nights ago. The second matchup is between the Canadiens and the Canucks which on paper may not seem like a great matchup given their place in the standings but, both teams have been red hot as of late. I’ll breakdown the second matchup between Montreal and Vancouver and may add another play.

Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks

• Time: 10:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: TNT
• Montreal Canadiens: 15-34-7, 8th Atlantic (7-17-6 Away)
• Vancouver Canucks: 28-23-6, 6th Pacific (12-10-3 Home)

Trends:

• Montreal are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
• Montreal are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Vancouver’s last 8 games.
• Vancouver are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games

Previous Matchups:

• Nov 29, 2021: Vancouver Canucks (2) @ Montreal Canadiens (1)
  • VAN +105, MTL -125, O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
  • xG VAN: 3.52 , xG MTL: 2.26
    • Thatcher Demko: +1.27 GSAx
    • Jake Allen: +0.89 GSAx

Preview:

Montreal Canadiens

After a brutal start to the season following their run to the Stanley Cup finals last year, the Canadiens have seemed to catch fire under new head coach Martin St. Louis. They’re 7-1 in their last 8 games defeating some pretty solid opponents including Calgary, Toronto, and St. Louis.

Montreal ranks 31st in terms of Goals For per game averaging 2.41. Part of the reason for their recent success has been their increase in goal production as they’ve averaged 3.40 Goals For in their last 10. Under their new head coach, Montreal’s young talent has thrived mainly Cole Caufield. He wasn’t great in the beginning of the year only scoring 1 goal in the first 32 games. In just the last 11 games, he has 7 goals and 7 assists averaging over a point per game. With the increase in offensive production his ice time has also gone up with has certainly helped him.

The Habs struggle to generate offensive chances ranking 24th in Shots on Goal For and 22nd in High Danger Shots For. They have a -8.08 Goals For Above Expected which has a direct correlation to their Shooting % that ranks dead last. As I’ve mentioned before the Habs have had this offensive renaissance as of late and have not only increased their Shots For per game but have also been capitalizing on those chances as their Shooting % has gone up as well. One area of concern is their Power Play which is second to last in the NHL and has been even worse as of late.

Just like their offense, Montreal has been much much better in their last 10 games. Overall they’ve given up an average of 3.29 Goals Against per game but, in their last 10 they’ve cut that number to 2.80. One of the reason’s that number has dropped so much has been their ability to limit the number of shots against. On the year they give up an average of 34.0 Shots on Goal Against, ranking 29th but, in their last 10 they’ve only given up an average of 32.30. They do have a +6.98 Goals Against Above Expected which ranks 11th. Unlike their Power Play which has gotten worse over the past few games, their Penalty Kill has actually been better.

The Canadiens goaltender issues have only gotten worse since the start of the year. As most people know, Carey Price has taken the year off due to personal/injury issues. Then Jake Allen, their starting goaltender, gets hurt in January but is expected to return later this month. Following Allen, Andrew Hammond, who’s only played a few games for them got hurt recently and is out indefinitely. So it looks like Sam Montembeault, who’s actually started the most games for the Habs this season will get the start with Cayden Premeau backing him up. Montembeault started in their last game vs Edmonton and finished with a +1.08 GSAx. On the season he hasn’t been great with a -9.5 GSAx but as seen in his last performance, has been better as of late.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks return home from a four game road trip where they went 3-1. In their last game they went into the Scotiabank Arena and knocked off the Maple Leafs 6-4. Vancouver still has a small chance at getting into the playoffs. Given the run that they’re on right now it certainly seems like that probability will only increase. It’ll be interesting to see if the Canucks are buyers or sellers at the upcoming deadline. Given their recent revamp in their front office, I’m sure they’ll do something one way or the other.

Just like Montreal, the Canucks have been much better offensively as of late averaging 4.40 Goals For in their last 10. On the year, they average 2.82 Goals For which ranks 23rd. Vancouver actually does a decent job at generating offensive opportunities ranking 13th in Shots on Goal For. However, the sole reason for the Canucks increased Goals For average has been their Shooting %, jumping from 8.7% on the year to 13% in their last 10. There’s no other reason, and that rate of 13% is not sustainable at all so we’ll see how long that lasts. J.T. Miller leads the team in points and has been an absolute stud as of late. He has 6 goals and 11 assists in the last 9 games. The Canucks Power Play ranks 16th in the NHL and has been even better as of late converting on over 25% of their man advantage opportunities.

Despite the Canucks being much better offensively as of late, their defense has been much worse. On the season they rank 12th in Goals Allowed averaging 2.84 but in their last 10 games, they’re averaging 3.80 Goals Against. Vancouver is allowing pretty much the same amount of Shots Against, so that’s not the main cause. The Canucks are a very inconsistent team so you’re not sure what you’re going to get every night. In their past few games they’ve held Calgary, which is one of the best offensives in the NHL to 1 goal and another night they allow 7 against New Jersey. So you’re just really not sure what to expect. Their Penalty Kill is absolutely atrocious ranking dead last in the NHL and has been even worse as of late. The Canadiens don’t have a great Power Play so it’s not a major concern tonight but definitely something they need to try and fix moving forward.

Since Vancouver has had a few days off, All-Star Thatcher Demko is expected to get the start in net. He currently ranks 12th in the NHL in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +10.3. However, in his last two starts he’s allowed three or more goals in each of them. Demko did start in their previous meeting against the Canadiens and finished with a +1.27 GSAx.

Pick:

• MONTREAL CANADIENS/ VANCOUVER CANUCKS OVER 6.0 (-110) – BetMGM
  • Just based off the way these teams have been trending offensively and defensively as of late, I like this game to go over. I get it is a “rivalry” of some sort but Montreal’s pace has really picked up as of late and given the recent struggles of both goalies, I think that only helps the total go over. I also wouldn’t be shocked if this line was to move to 6.5 but I honestly don’t expect it to.

Lean

• EDMONTON OILERS (-125) – DRAFTKINGS
  • While the Oilers have not been great as of late, they face a Capitals team that’s coming off a hard fought battle against the Flames on Tuesday night. Washington will have to play their second game in less than 24 hours so just based off the fatigue factor and the Oilers pace of play, I like Edmonton here to wear them out. Vanecek started on Tuesday night so Ilya Samsonov will likely get the start for the Caps. Samsonov has been the worse goalie of the two and has a -7.1 GSAx on the season. This is not an official play due to the unpredictable nature of the Edmonton Oilers and more specifically their goaltending but if you’re looking for a bet in the early game, I lean the Oilers.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.