The NHL Playoff’s are officially underway and have been wildly entertaining so far. We have three matchups tonight that should continue that trend.
New York Islanders (+115) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-135)
The Islanders enter Game 2 of this Series up 1-0 after Palmieri’s OT winner. It was back and forth all game, with both teams giving up leads, leading to that wild finish.
We have the same goalies starting as in Game 1. Ilya Sorokin has been confirmed to be the starter tonight for the Islanders, as Varlamov is still out. Sorokin faced 42 shot attempts in Game 1, stopping 39 of them for a .929% SV. In net for Pittsburgh tonight we have Tristan Jarry, who struggled to say the least, in the first game of the series. He gave up a pair of questionable goals, that were ultimately the difference maker.
Even though the Penguins did lose Game 1, they still had an better xGF (5 on 5 Situations) than the Islanders (2.62-1.77). The line tonight’s game is -135 (PIT) which is 10 cents higher than the first game of the series. Pittsburgh hopes to get Malkin back tonight, who’s a game time decision. The public will be on Pittsburgh tonight as they look to rebound at home where they have been great all season. The Penguins average 1.28 GF at Home in the 1P compared to the Islanders who average 0.66 GF Away. With the Pens being down in the series, they should come out motivated and go up in the first period.
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins 1P -0.5, +165 (Risk 1.00 Unit)
Tampa Bay Lighting (-115) @ Florida Panthers (-105)
In what might have been the most exciting playoff game of the post-season so far, the Lighting of Tampa Bay battled back late in the 3rd period to win 5-4. The return of Nikita Kucherov made a huge impact for Tampa as he picked up two goals and an assist.
Tampa Bay is sticking with Andrei Vasilevskiy in net tonight, after picking up the win in Game 1 behind a .897 SV%. The Panthers are switching things up tonight, rolling with Chris Driedger tonight who has outplayed Bobrovsky (Game 1 starter) all season. Driedger faced the Lighting three times this season going 2-0-1 with a 2.33 GAA.
The difference in Game 1 was the Lightning’s powerplay, where they picked up 3 of their goals. The other major issue for Florida, was goaltending. They addressed this issue by starting Driedger tonight. Now, it’ll be interesting to see if that can fix their penalty kill. Florida has shown they can stick with the defending Stanley Cup Champions all season, so you can’t dismiss them in this series after giving up a lead in Game 1. One major positive for them was they did have a better xGF than Tampa on 5-5 play (1.73-1.42) in the series opener. The line for tonight’s game is -115 (TB) which is shorter than the prior game of -125 (TB). I have this game as a pick ’em so I like the price on Florida tonight especially with Driedger in net and a chance to even up the series at home.
Pick: Florida Panthers ml, -105 (Risk 1.05 Units)
Minnesota Wild (+150) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-170)
The first game of this series featured two of the best goaltending performance’s I’ve recently witnessed. Cam Talbot stopped 42 shots in an overtime win, while Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 29 out of 30 shots.
The goalies for tonight’s game are expected to be the same as in Game 1. Cam Talbot (not confirmed) has played well against Vegas this season but never as well as he did in the series opener. Talbot picked up 3 out of 4 wins vs VGS this season with a 3.26 GAA in those games. Vegas has been rotating goalies all year but, they stick with Fleury here.
The betting public will be heavy on the Golden Knights tonight as they have been all season long. Vegas is the better team in this matchup, but it’s all about the line that they’re offered at. The line in Game 1 closed at -150 for Vegas but is currently around -170. This line has indicated that Max Pacioretty, a game time decision, is likely to return and provide a big boost for the Vegas offense. The Minnesota Wild had a 2.06 xGF% (5 on 5) in Game 1 which was really close to the Golden Knights xGF% of 2.11. However, Vegas had a team Corsi of 60.19% compared to the Wild’s 39.81%. The moneyline for Vegas is just too large of a number for me to lay especially with how Game 1 went. I think the Golden Knights in regulation provides some value if Vegas can capitalize on their chances, which they have failed to do this series.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights in regulation -0.5, -120 (Risk 1.20 Units)
Year to Date Record: 4-5 (-1.70 Units)
Playoff Record: 1-0 (+1.00 Units)
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