We have 5 playoff games on tap for today. Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, and Vegas all have the ability to clinch their respective series. The first round of the playoffs have lived up to the hype, providing great games night in, and night out. Lets take a look at some of tonight’s games, and try to turn this playoff skid around.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) @ Florida Panthers (-105)
Tampa Bay enters tonight’s game as a -115 favorite, coming off Game 4 where they closed as a -140 home favorite.
Andrei Vasilevskiy starts in net again for the Lightning as he has the previous four games. Vasilevskiy has played well all playoffs entering Game 5 with a 5.7 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). On the other hand, the Panthers have had horrible goaltending this post season. Sergei Bobrovsky has the worst GSAx in the playoffs out of any goalie with a -4.0. Chris Driedger hasn’t been much better as he has a -2.0 GSAx this post-season. Florida looks for hope in their rookie goalie Spencer Knight, who will start for them tonight in a must win game.
Tampa’s AgA (Average Goals Against) increases by 0.4 when on the road. Florida’s Aga’s drops drastically at home going from 3.23 Away to 2.32 at Home. The Panthers AgF (Average Goals For) drops at home by 0.1, as Tampa’s decreases on the road by 0.57. Even with Florida starting a rookie goalie who’s played four games, I think this game stays under. The total has gone over in 3 out of 4 games this series, mainly due to Florida’s goaltending. Florida understands they have to be more disciplined on defense to pull this win out and stay alive, especially with Knight in net.
Pick: Under 6.0, -115 (Risk 1.15 Units – Pointsbet)
Edmonton Oilers (-120) @ Winnipeg Jets (+100)
Edmonton enters this game down 3-0 in the series to a team that really was not given a shot to win this series due to some major injuries. The Oilers we’re up 4-1 in the third period last night and ended up losing 5-4 in OT. This team is facing playoff humiliation for the second year in a row and needs to win tonight to avoid getting swept. They open up Game 4 at -120 on the moneyline after closing Game 3 at -130.
If you told me at the start of this series that Connor Hellebuyck would have 6.0 GSAx vs the Oilers who he’s struggled against all season, I’d say you’re out of your mind. Yet, here we are as he enters Game 4 with the second best GSAx in the playoffs behind Fleury. Mike Smith starts opposite of Hellebuyck tonight for Edmonton.
The Jets have just flat out been the better team in the playoffs, speaking from a personal and analytical viewpoint. The Jets are offered at their lowest price of the series tonight at +100. They’ve proven they can defeat the Oilers and have the ability to eliminate them from playoff contention tonight. Even with all that said, the value for the Jets has been lost based off their recent success. With a -120 moneyline tonight, I think McDavid and company pull this game out and live to fight another day.
Pick: Edmonton Oilers ml, -120 (Risk 1.20 Units – Pointsbet)
Minnesota Wild (+155) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-175)
The Vegas Golden Knights are offered at -175 ml tonight which is the highest price of the series. The moneyline for the Knights closed at -110 and -115 for Games 3 and 4.
After dropping Game 1, the Golden Knights have rattled off 3 straight wins behind the hottest goalie in the playoffs, Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury enters Game 5 with the best GSAx in the playoffs. He’ll once again start for the Golden Knights tonight. Minnesota has not confirmed their starting goalie tonight but is expected to be Cam Talbot.
Vegas has shut down the Minnesota offense this series, led by their penalty kill. The Golden Knights have only allowed an average of 1.0 GPG this series. The total has gone under in all of the games this series besides Game 3. Even though the total has trended under in this series, these games have not been close as Vegas has covered the puckline in the past 3 games. However, I think tonight will be a little closer since it is an elimination game but, Vegas should still win this game. The only game to go overtime in this series was Game 1, and the -175 ml is just a little too pricey for me.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation -0.5, -120 (Risk 1.20 Units)
Year to Date Record: 8-11 (-4.10 Units)
Playoff Record: 5-7 (-1.40 Units)
