Last night we saw the Edmonton Oilers get swept by the Winnipeg Jets. The odds for a Jets sweep were wound 4% prior to the series starting. Minnesota managed to stay alive defeat the Golden Knights by a score of 4-2, where they were both outplayed and outshot. We don’t have any elimination games on tonight’s slate but, we do have two interesting matchups. The Canadian’s have dropped two in a row, after taking game one and look to even the series up at home. In the Central Division Playoffs, Carolina looks to take the series lead back home, while Nashville looks to continue their momentum after back to back OT wins.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-185) @ Montreal Canadians (+155)
The Leafs have managed to pull out two wins in a row against the Canadians after a sub par performance in Game 1. The Maple Leafs are the favorites in tonight’s game coming in at -180 on the moneyline.
The story in this series has been Carey Price’s play following his injury. Price will start in net for the Habs tonight posting a 3.9 GSAx. The Maple Leafs have not confirmed their starter for tonight but, Jack Campbell is expected. Campbell hasn’t been as impressive but still boasts a 1.6 GSAx in the playoffs.
The Canadians have undoubtedly given Toronto better games than they expected. However, all the stats point to Toronto in this matchup. They have the second best goals % and expected goals % in the playoffs so far. This game is a toss up for me though as the value for the Leafs ml is gone and based off previous games I don’t trust Montreal in this spot especially with some injury issues. The total has been set at 5.5 all three games in this series and has gone under twice. The last game ended 2-1 with both teams going 0-7 combined on the powerplay. With all the scoring chances both teams have generated, I like tonight’s game goes over the total of 5.5.
Pick: Over 5.5, +100 (Risk 1.00 Unit)
Nashville Predators (+170) @ Carolina Hurricanes (-200)
The Nashville Predators head back to Carolina after winning back to back overtime games to even up the Series at 2-2. The Hurricanes opened this game as -185 favorites but, after overnight action the line has moved to -200. This was definitely expected after Carolina dropped 2 OT games away to Nashville.
With less than 3 hours until puck drop neither team has confirmed their starting goalie. Alex Nedeljkovic was the starting goalie for the Canes morning skate so based off that information, I’m expecting he will start. Nedeljkovic enters Game 5 with a positive GSAx of 1.1. Juuse Saros is expected to start for Nashville after picking up back to back wins. He’s been decent in the playoffs having a +0.5 GSAx through the first four games.
Carolina comes into Game 5 with a slight advantage in high danger scoring chances and expected goals for. Entering this series, they dominated the Predators in both these categories. Nashville has their top line to thank for closing that gap, as they have been one of the best lines in playoffs posting an expected goals rate of 75%. Carolina’s top line hasn’t been as good, but isn’t far off with an expected goals rate of 61%. Nobody thought Nashville would play as well as they have. They were one of four teams who entered the playoffs with less than 70 points. The home team has taken every game of this series, and with it heading back to Raleigh, I’m looking to take Carolina in this spot. They’re coming off back to back overtime losses where each of those games could have gone either way. I think Carolina takes Game 5 and regains control of this series.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes in Regulation -0.5, -130 (Risk 1.30 Units)
